Kazatomprom Sets Ambitious Uranium Output Target Amid Global Supply Squeeze

NAC Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, has outlined plans for a significant production increase in 2026, directly responding to tightening global supplies. The company aims to boost its output by approximately nine percent compared to the prior year, targeting a range of 27,500 to 29,000 tonnes of uranium (tU).

This strategic move raises a pivotal question for the market: can this scale of expansion help address the widening supply-demand gap?

The uranium sector is currently defined by a profound supply deficit, a consequence of underinvestment spanning over a decade. Industry analysts project global demand will surge by 28% by 2030, with a further doubling expected by 2040. Geopolitical realignments are intensifying this trend, as Western nations actively seek alternatives to Russian nuclear fuel. The European Union, for instance, intends to halt uranium purchases from Russia starting in 2027.

Holding a dominant 40% share of the global market and benefiting from a low-cost production base, Kazatomprom is reinforcing its critical position within the international supply chain. The company emphasizes operational flexibility as a core tenet for navigating evolving market conditions.

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Strategic Expansion and Contract Security

The projected output growth for 2026 is largely anchored in the planned ramp-up of the Budenovskoye joint venture. Significantly, the site's entire production from 2024 through 2026 is already secured under existing offtake agreements. Management also intends to raise extraction at several other mines to maintain stable inventory levels.

This dual-focused approach is designed to ensure the reliable fulfillment of contractual obligations while positioning the firm to capitalize on the growing disparity between supply and demand. Notably, the company's average realized sales price in the previous year declined by about 6% to $65.10 per pound, despite periods of higher spot market prices.

• 2026 Sales Forecast: Expected sales volume is projected between 19,500 and 20,500 tU.

Operational Priorities and Legal Transitions

A key operational focus is the Akdala deposit, where existing mining rights are set to expire on March 28 of this year. Following this date, the asset will transition into Kazatomprom's trusteeship. The company is currently evaluating options for securing new extraction licenses to allow for the controlled mining of the site's remaining reserves, estimated at roughly 1,500 tonnes, through 2030.

The 2026 production guidance aligns with the "Value over Volume" strategy first communicated in August, which involved a slight downward revision of nominal output targets to prioritize efficient resource utilization. For successful execution, the stable availability of sulfuric acid in the coming year is highlighted as a crucial operational factor.