Leonardo's Strategic Trajectory Points to Robust Growth Through 2030

The European defense sector is experiencing a pronounced upswing, with Leonardo positioned as a primary structural beneficiary. A revised industrial plan for 2026-2030, coupled with significant momentum from its investment portfolio, paints a compelling picture for the company's expansion.

Ambitious 2030 Targets Set by Management

Leonardo's internal projections through the end of the decade are notably ambitious. The company aims to increase its order intake from €23.8 billion in 2025 to €32 billion by 2030. Revenue is targeted to reach €30 billion, a substantial rise from the €19.5 billion expected in the current year. Perhaps most strikingly, EBITA is forecast to more than double, climbing from €1.75 billion to €3.59 billion.

This growth is further supported by European Union initiatives. The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), launched on March 30, 2026, allocates €1.5 billion for the period 2025-2027. Of this total, over €700 million is specifically earmarked for scaling production capacity in areas such as drone defense, missiles, and ammunition.

The MBDA Stake: A Core Value Driver

A significant contributor to this outlook is Leonardo's 25% holding in MBDA, the European missile systems specialist. MBDA has announced plans to invest €5 billion in production between 2026 and 2030, which represents double the investment of its previous program. This surge is driven by sharply elevated demand for air defense systems within NATO. The company had already doubled its missile production between 2023 and 2025; for 2026, a further 40% increase is planned, with production of Aster air-defense missiles slated to double once again.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Leonardo?

Market analysts reflect this confidence. Bank of America estimates MBDA's total enterprise value could reach approximately €55 billion by 2030, a valuation that underscores the persistent requirement among European NATO members for advanced interception and combat systems.

Diversification into Naval and Space Domains

Beyond its missile-related business, Leonardo is actively developing opportunities in other fields. The Italian Navy is evaluating the procurement of the Turkish-built Bayraktar TB3 combat drone for deployment on the aircraft carrier Cavour. Any integration would be managed through the joint venture LBA Systems, established with the Turkish manufacturer Baykar. The TB3 platform recently demonstrated its capabilities during the NATO exercise "Steadfast Dart 2026."

In the space segment, the joint venture Thales Alenia Space successfully launched the IOD-2 satellite on March 28, 2026. This 30-kilogram CubeSat will act as a technology demonstrator for a future Low Earth Orbit (LEO) navigation system capable of centimeter-level accuracy, designed to complement the existing Galileo network.

Leonardo at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Recent Share Performance and Market Context

Leonardo's shares have retreated approximately 5.7% over the past seven trading sessions, trading notably below their 52-week high of €64.44. Given the scale of the communicated growth objectives and the structural tailwind provided by expanding European defense budgets, many market participants may view this pullback as a consolidation phase rather than a reversal of the longer-term positive trend.

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Leonardo Stock: New Analysis - 31 March

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