Nel ASA’s Strategic Pivot: A Critical Juncture for the Hydrogen Pioneer

Norwegian hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA approaches a significant reporting milestone against a backdrop of strategic advancement and recent market challenges. The company is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 26, with its shares currently trading within a narrow band around NOK 2.25. Investor focus is squarely on whether order intake has rebounded following a notably weak prior quarter, and on the implications of a major new manufacturing initiative.

Marking the culmination of a seven-year development program initiated in 2018, Nel's board approved a critical investment decision in December 2025. The company will industrialize its "Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline" electrolyzer platform at its Herøya facility in Norway.

Key project details include:

• Financial Backing: The initiative is supported by the EU Innovation Fund with grants of up to €135 million.
• Production Scale: The site is targeting an annual capacity of up to 4 gigawatts.
• Initial Investment: An investment of approximately NOK 300 million will establish an initial 1 GW of capacity.
• Commercial Timeline: Market launch is planned for the first half of 2026, with high-volume deliveries expected to commence from 2027.

The new platform promises enhanced energy efficiency and lower system costs, which are central to reducing the levelized cost of green hydrogen production.

Recent Performance Under Scrutiny

The figures for Q3 2025, published on October 29, revealed significant headwinds, placing greater importance on the upcoming report.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

• Revenue declined by 17% to NOK 303 million.
• Order Intake saw a sharp contraction of 64%, falling to NOK 57 million.
• Order Backlog stood at NOK 984 million.
• Liquidity remained robust at roughly NOK 1.8 billion.

The dramatic drop in new orders has been a primary concern for shareholders, who will be looking for clear signs of stabilization and recovery in the Q4 results.

Contract Wins Amid a Challenging Climate

Despite the difficult broader environment, Nel has announced several new contracts. In November 2025, the company secured a PEM electrolyzer order valued at over $50 million for the HyFuel and Kaupanes projects. Furthermore, Nel was selected as the technology provider for the GreenH hydrogen projects located in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.

Market Growth Fails to Meet Expectations

The hydrogen sector continues to face obstacles, with a slower-than-anticipated development pace confirmed by European regulators. High production costs and delays in related infrastructure projects are hindering the industry's expansion. This challenging landscape makes the path to profitable scaling more difficult for equipment suppliers like Nel.

The upcoming quarterly report will provide crucial evidence on whether the new platform investment and recent contract awards are sufficient to alter the current trajectory. Shareholders will gather for the Annual General Meeting on April 10, with the subsequent Q1 2026 report due on April 22.