Nel ASA: The Critical Path to 2026 and Beyond

Shares of Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA have opened the new year with significant gains, recapturing investor attention after a prolonged period of weakness. The central debate now focuses on whether this momentum signals a fundamental business turnaround or is primarily a technical rebound within a volatile sector.

Entering 2026, Nel's balance sheet presents a notably more robust picture than that of some rivals, particularly the financially strained U.S. competitor Plug Power. As of September 30, 2025, the company reported liquid assets of 1.76 billion NOK. Furthermore, its EBITDA loss showed a marked improvement in Q3 2025, narrowing to -37 million NOK from -90 million NOK in the same period the prior year.

Revenue from customer contracts for the third quarter stood at 303 million NOK, a decrease from 366 million NOK in Q3 2024. This decline is attributed to postponed investment decisions from major clients, reflecting the challenging broader market conditions.

Sector-Wide Recovery Provides Momentum

The recent rally in Nel's share price is part of a broader resurgence across the clean-energy and hydrogen sector. After losing approximately 90% of its value since the peak of hydrogen enthusiasm in 2021, the stock is now benefiting from a gradual return of investors to this previously shunned segment. Competitors including Plug Power and thyssenkrupp nucera have also recorded substantial price increases at the start of the year.

Despite this recent performance, Nel's shares remain down roughly 14% over a twelve-month horizon, underperforming Norway's OBX Total Return Index. The consensus rating among analysts continues to be "Underperform."

The Next-Generation Platform: A Potential Inflection Point

A pivotal factor behind the shifting sentiment is the final investment decision made in December 2025. This decision greenlights the industrial implementation of Nel's Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform at its Herøya facility in Norway. The board approved the following key parameters:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

• Production Capacity: Establishment of manufacturing with an initial capacity of up to 1 GW.
• EU Funding: Secured 135 million euros from the EU Innovation Fund.
• Investment Scale: Approximately 300 million NOK before accounting for grants.
• Timeline: Commercial launch is scheduled for the first half of 2026, with a scale-up in deliveries beginning in 2027.
• Subsidy Level: The funding can cover up to 60% of relevant investment and operational costs.

Developed over seven years, this technology promises leading system efficiency and significantly lower levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). CEO Håkon Volldal emphasizes that the improved economics could make projects viable that previously required substantial subsidies to be feasible.

Strategic Backing and Key Partnerships

Adding strategic heft is anchor shareholder Samsung E&A. The South Korean engineering, procurement, and construction specialist invested approximately 353 million NOK through a capital increase in March 2025, acquiring a 9.1% stake. As the largest single shareholder, Samsung E&A has also entered a cooperation agreement with Nel to offer complete hydrogen plants based on Nel's electrolyzer technology.

Year-End Orders Bolster the Pipeline

As 2025 concluded, Nel announced several significant new contracts, providing support to its order backlog and reinforcing its market position, particularly within the PEM electrolyzer segment:

• HyFuel and Kaupanes Projects: A PEM electrolyzer order valued at over 50 million US dollars.
• H2 Energy: A third contract for a containerized PEM solution.
• GreenH Projects: A role as technology provider for hydrogen initiatives in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.

Why 2026 is a Pivotal Year

The planned commercial launch of the Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform in the coming months stands as the central catalyst for a potential re-rating of the stock. Its modular, container-based design aims to eliminate the need for costly building investments, transforming complex projects into standardized product deliveries.

The next crucial milestone will be the quarterly report due on February 26, 2026. This update will reveal whether order intake is meeting expectations for the new technology and strategic partnerships, thereby determining if the recent share price strength has a sustainable fundamental foundation.