Novo Nordisk Navigates a Crossroads of Patent Wins and Losses

As 2026 begins, Danish pharmaceutical leader Novo Nordisk finds itself in a regulatory tug-of-war, simultaneously celebrating a major legal victory and confronting a significant patent expiration. Investors are left to ponder whether the imminent U.S. launch of a key oral drug can offset rising competitive pressures.

All eyes are now on the United States, where a potential growth driver is poised for launch. Following FDA approval in late December 2025, the oral version of Wegovy is set to debut. This product holds a distinct competitive edge as the first oral GLP-1 medication for weight management, differentiating it from injectable rivals.

Novo Nordisk’s strategy for this launch includes an aggressive pricing model. The introductory dose is reportedly priced at approximately $149 per month for cash-paying patients. The company’s clear objective is to lower access barriers and capture market share rapidly. After a challenging year that saw its shares decline nearly 48% over a 12-month period, the stock showed modest positive movement, closing at €44.61 on Friday. The commercial performance of this new therapy is widely viewed as critical for the stock’s recovery trajectory and its ability to counterbalance revenue pressures elsewhere.

A Strategic Victory in a Key Market

In a significant boost for the company, China’s Supreme People’s Court has upheld the validity of Novo Nordisk’s patent for semaglutide. This ruling reinforces an earlier decision from the Beijing Intellectual Property Court. The confirmation is a strategically vital win, safeguarding exclusivity for the blockbuster Ozempic and Wegovy franchises in one of the world’s most crucial growth markets.

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Novo Nordisk emphasized that the judgment also strengthens the confidence of foreign pharmaceutical firms in China’s intellectual property landscape. Despite this positive development, company management maintains its existing forecast, noting that patent expirations in other regions could pressure global sales growth into the low single-digit range for 2026.

The Canadian Patent Cliff Becomes Reality

The tangible nature of that forecasted pressure is evident in North America. Effective January 4, 2026, patent protection for semaglutid has officially expired in Canada. This expiration opens the door for generic drug manufacturers, creating an immediate threat to Novo Nordisk’s revenue streams in that market.

Industry observers interpret this event as a precursor to the broader "patent cliffs" anticipated for the pharmaceutical sector later in the decade. In response, Novo Nordisk is working to mitigate such losses through its aggressive research pipeline and the development of new drug formulations. The success of its U.S. launch strategy will be a key test of its ability to navigate this new phase of competition.