Rigetti Computing Faces Significant Headwinds Amid Technical Delays and Contract Setback

The opening weeks of 2026 have presented considerable challenges for quantum computing firm Rigetti. A steep decline in its share price over recent weeks underscores a market narrative now dominated by a significant contract exclusion and product roadmap delays. While the company continues to secure commercial deals, investor sentiment is currently weighed down by these combined technical and competitive hurdles.

Amid the turbulence, Rigetti's commercial business has shown activity. In a notable development, the company secured an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) for the delivery of a 108-qubit quantum computer. This follows earlier January orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two smaller 9-qubit systems from its Novera series. These transactions demonstrate tangible market demand for Rigetti's existing hardware, even as its advanced development faces obstacles.

The Dual Blow: DARPA Exclusion and "Cepheus" Delay

Two primary factors are driving the negative investor reaction. First, in late January, Rigetti was notably absent from the award list for a key benchmarking contract by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). In the quantum sector, such government contracts are frequently viewed as a seal of approval for a company's technological maturity, making this exclusion a substantial reputational setback.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Compounding this issue are revised timelines for Rigetti's flagship system. The general availability of its ambitious 108-qubit "Cepheus" processor, initially anticipated earlier by investors, has been pushed back. The company now targets the end of the first quarter of 2026. Rigetti cites required work on error rates and signal fidelity as the reason—technical challenges recognized across the industry as critical bottlenecks for achieving commercial scalability.

Market Reaction and Forthcoming Financial Test

The collective impact of these developments is starkly reflected in the stock's performance, which has shed nearly 30% of its value over a 30-day period. Shares are currently trading just above their 52-week low, indicating that concerns are outweighing positive commercial news.

Attention now turns to the company's upcoming financial disclosure as a key test. Rigetti is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results around March 4, 2026. This report will be scrutinized for updates on the revised Cepheus development schedule and for a clearer picture of how the order book has been affected by recent deals and setbacks.