SanDisk's Stock: Navigating Correction and High-Stakes Forecasts

Following a notable decline last week, market attention has pivoted to two key questions surrounding SanDisk: is a stock split imminent, and can the company deliver on exceptionally bullish quarterly projections? The upcoming earnings report on May 13th is set against a backdrop of record financial targets and renewed investor speculation.

Robust Fundamentals Amid Sector Noise

The recent sell-off was primarily triggered by an algorithm from Google, TurboQuant, which is designed to reduce the memory requirements for HBM and DRAM in AI inference tasks. Market analysts were quick to provide context, emphasizing that this development does not impact the persistent demand for SSDs—the core business of SanDisk. The fundamental narrative for NAND flash memory remains intact.

Market reaction reflected this analysis. After a seven-day slide that saw shares fall approximately 20%, a pre-market recovery pushed the stock to around $628. Financial institution Morgan Stanley characterized the price movement as a healthy market correction rather than the beginning of a broader downtrend.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SANDISK?

Record-Breaking Quarterly Projections

The central story remains SanDisk's financial performance. For the third quarter, the company has issued a revenue forecast ranging from $4.4 to $4.8 billion. This follows a second-quarter result of $3.03 billion, which surpassed consensus estimates by nearly 14%. The earnings per share (EPS) outlook of $12 to $14 dramatically exceeds what analysts considered feasible just months ago.

Furthermore, the targeted non-GAAP gross margin of 65% to 67% signals a level of pricing power that is uncommon within the semiconductor sector. The May 13th earnings call will be a critical test of whether SanDisk can validate this guidance and if demand from data centers—which the company estimates will drive 75 to 100 exabytes of AI-related storage needs by 2027—remains as robust as current order books suggest.

Mounting Speculation for a Stock Split

In parallel with the price recovery, speculation about a potential stock split has gained momentum. The rationale stems from SanDisk's substantial appreciation; the share price has more than tripled from its 52-week low of $167. A split would lower the nominal trading price, potentially increase liquidity, and improve accessibility for retail investors. It could also facilitate inclusion in certain price-weighted market indices.

The heightened institutional and retail interest is underscored by the launch of a leveraged 2x ETF on SanDisk by REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management on March 12, 2026. While this activity highlights growing focus, an official announcement regarding a stock split has not yet been made by the company.

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