Viking Therapeutics: A Tale of Clinical Momentum and Financial Strain

The investment case for Viking Therapeutics presents a compelling dichotomy. On one hand, the biopharmaceutical company is making rapid strides in late-stage clinical trials for its obesity treatment. On the other, analysts are growing more pessimistic about its near-term financial losses, creating a complex risk-reward scenario for its stock.

The company's primary catalyst is the advanced development of VK2735, a dual GLP‑1 and GIP receptor agonist. Recent updates indicate the pivotal Phase 3 programs, named VANQUISH, are progressing faster than initially anticipated.

• The VANQUISH-1 trial has already enrolled approximately 4,650 participants, exceeding its original target.
• Viking aims to complete enrollment of around 1,100 patients for the VANQUISH-2 study by the conclusion of the current quarter, Q1 2026.

This accelerated pace of patient recruitment across both studies suggests robust interest from the medical community and patients. For the company, swift and extensive enrollment is critical, as it lays the groundwork for timely data readouts and potential regulatory submissions.

A Dual-Formulation Strategy

Viking is developing VK2735 in both subcutaneous (injectable) and oral formulations. The oral version has garnered significant attention following Phase 2 results, which demonstrated an average weight reduction of 12.2% over a 13-week period.

The strategic advantage lies in offering the same active compound in two distinct delivery methods. This approach could provide future flexibility in treatment regimens, allowing for potential switching between a pill and an injection based on individual patient needs or treatment response.

Mounting Losses and a Premium Valuation

Financially, the outlook has darkened. Market analysis from yesterday reveals that loss estimates for the coming years have been revised upward.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Viking Therapeutics?

• The projected loss per share for 2025 has increased from $2.63 to $2.68 over the past 60 days.
• Similarly, the expected loss per share for 2026 has risen from $3.80 to $3.88 during the same timeframe.

Concurrently, the stock carries a demanding valuation. It currently trades at approximately 5.58 times its book value, a significant premium to the industry average of 3.61. This pricing implies the market is already anticipating substantial future success, potentially amplifying stock volatility should clinical results be delayed or commercialization efforts face setbacks.

Navigating an Intensifying Competitive Arena

The obesity therapeutics market remains fiercely competitive as 2026 approaches. While Viking advances its Phase 3 programs, established players are fortifying their positions. Novo Nordisk, for instance, has secured approval for an oral formulation of Wegovy and plans a market launch this January.

This environment increases the pressure on Viking to clearly differentiate VK2735 in both its oral and injectable forms. However, the double-digit weight loss efficacy demonstrated by the oral variant in mid-stage trials provides a credible foundation for the company to compete.

Divergent Analyst Perspectives

Market expert opinions on the equity are mixed, highlighting the inherent tension. A majority of analysts maintain a positive consensus, with price targets ranging from $87 to $102 per share. In contrast, model-based valuations express more caution.

The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), primarily due to the negative revisions in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026. This discrepancy between a formal "Sell" rating and lofty price targets underscores the wide divergence in how investors are weighing the company's risks against its potential. The calculus for shareholders involves balancing the expanding near-term losses against the considerable commercial promise of the VANQUISH program.

Conclusion: Operational Execution Meets Financial Pressure

Viking Therapeutics embodies two concurrent narratives: operational strength in clinical execution and a deteriorating short-term profit outlook. The advanced recruitment in VANQUISH-1 and the anticipated completion of VANQUISH-2 enrollment by Q1 2026 create a solid platform for upcoming data milestones. Simultaneously, the heightened loss projections and elevated price-to-book ratio raise the stakes, demanding flawless clinical results and a successful future commercialization pathway for VK2735.