A Wall of Puts Couldn’t Keep the VanEck Semiconductor ETF from Hitting a New High
30.05.2026 - 06:06:06 | boerse-global.de
Nearly 1.7 million outstanding put contracts now stake a bearish claim against the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF – the highest volume on record for bearish options on the fund. With calls numbering just 500,000, the put/call ratio has reached extreme levels. Yet far from signalling an imminent reversal, some strategists interpret the hedging frenzy as a source of resilience: investors who buy protection haven’t sold their underlying shares, keeping capital locked in the market.
The ETF closed the week at €95.40, a new 52-week peak, after a blistering 73.6% advance since the start of the year and a 163% gain over the past twelve months. The paradox of record short?side activity against a record rally is defining the current debate. “People are hedging the move rather than chasing it,” one options strategist noted. “That pattern could prove more sustainable than a classic boom?and?bust.”
Nvidia, the fund’s top holding at 15.4% of assets, delivered the week’s most anticipated catalyst. The chip giant reported first?quarter fiscal?2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, an 85% year?on?year surge, and adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share, comfortably above the $1.76 consensus. It marked the 22nd earnings beat in the last 24 quarters. Markets, however, wanted more: the stock slipped 0.9% on Thursday despite the company announcing an $80 billion buyback and a modest dividend increase. The China blind spot remained – Nvidia pegs the annual opportunity there at $50 billion but still books zero data?centre revenue in the country.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
AMD and Micron provided the week’s strongest tailwinds. AMD boosted first?quarter revenue by 38% to $10.25 billion, with its data?centre business jumping 57%, and guided the current quarter to roughly $11.2 billion, above analyst expectations. At least 20 brokerage firms raised their price targets. Micron stole the show with a one?week surge of nearly 38% – its strongest weekly performance since December 2008 – driven by booming demand for high?bandwidth memory chips used in AI systems. The company’s HBM capacity is fully booked for 2026, prompting UBS to hike its target from $535 to $1,625.
The broad rally has lifted the PHLX Semiconductor Index by more than 65% this year. BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky, comparing the scope of the advance to 1999, warned of a potential 25%?30% correction. At the stock level, nervousness is even starker: Micron’s implied volatility hit 105%, making the diversified ETF an attractive vehicle for traders looking to dampen swings.
Valuation metrics add a layer of caution. The fund trades at 34.4 times trailing earnings, and GuruFocus rates the underlying SMH as 62.1% overvalued, pegging fair value at $376.68 versus a market price above $610. On the technical side, the picture is mixed: the ETF sits 27.9% above its 50?day moving average, yet its 14?day RSI is a moderate 42.6, and the MACD is positive. The annualised 30?day volatility of the fund stands at roughly 40%, while implied volatility on the US?listed SMH is around 50%.
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF, launched in December 2020 as Europe’s first pure?play semiconductor UCITS fund, holds 25 stocks with the top ten accounting for 72.4% of assets. The concentration has shifted recently: Micron, AMD and Intel now each carry double?digit weightings, reflecting the outsized moves in those names. The fund’s AUM stands at $8.1 billion, its expense ratio is 0.35%, and dividends are reinvested. Historically, May has been a strong month, delivering an average return of 6.8% with a 90% hit rate over the last decade – and this May has already proven profitable.
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