Allianz Juggles Overbought Warning and Buyback Momentum as Berenberg Sees 60% Upside
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 16:13 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Allianz shares are trading within a whisker of their record high at around €422, yet the technical picture is flashing a cautionary signal. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 79.5, deep in overbought territory. Normally that would trigger profit-taking, but two powerful forces are keeping the rally intact: the company’s own aggressive share repurchases and a bold bull case from Berenberg that sees the stock climbing another 60%.
The Munich-based insurer has been on a buying spree since March, ploughing €1.5 billion into its own shares in just over three months. That amounts to 60% of the total €2.5 billion buyback programme, even though only 40% of the programme’s scheduled time has elapsed. In the week to 3 July alone, Allianz snapped up nearly 295,000 shares at an average price of just over €414, accelerating its pace after a brief mid-June lull. The board’s playbook appears clear: keep buying regardless of price, a vote of confidence that has helped push the stock to a 52-week high of €423.90.
That confidence is rooted in the numbers. In the first quarter, operating profit rose 6.6% to a record €4.5 billion, already clearing more than a quarter of the full-year target of roughly €17.4 billion. The property and casualty division delivered a double-digit earnings jump, while the Solvency II ratio of 221% underscores a rock-solid capital position. For Berenberg analyst Michael Huttner, these fundamentals are being overlooked by a market that values European composite insurers at just 12 times 2028 earnings. He argues a multiple of 20 is justified and has reiterated a €684 price target, implying that over the medium term the stock could more than double from current levels.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?
The buyback is the near-term catalyst that has made the stock one of the strongest in the DAX this year, up more than 21%. Huttner’s thesis leans on the presumption that operational momentum will continue, with upcoming quarterly results needing to show that management can navigate normalising premium cycles and global risks. If the insurance giant keeps delivering, the valuation gap he highlights becomes harder for investors to ignore.
For now, the overbought RSI reading is a technical headwind, but the steady drip of repurchases acts as a shock absorber against any meaningful pullback. The risk is that the programme exhausts its remaining €1 billion well before the official end date of 31 December 2026, removing that crucial support. Until then, Allianz is writing its own script — buying back stock near all-time highs while a prominent analyst insists the best is yet to come.
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