BASF Buyback Surpasses 25 Million Shares as Demand Uncertainty Clouds Rally

BASF has pushed its share repurchase program past a notable milestone, buying back 25.3 million shares since November 2025. The move comes as the chemicals giant navigates a tricky environment where an earlier price-driven rally is starting to lose momentum and the underlying demand recovery remains patchy at best.

Buyback Progress and Technical Warning Signs

In the latest trading week alone, BASF acquired 983,903 of its own shares, taking the total under the current programme to over 25 million. The buyback, which has a ceiling of €1.5 billion, is designed to support earnings per share by reducing the share count — a textbook move for a cyclical company wanting to keep returning capital even when revenue growth is sluggish.

The stock closed at €52.35 on Tuesday, down 1.34% on the day but still up 17.01% since the start of the year. Yet technical indicators point to a rally that may have run too far, too fast. The relative strength index stands at 83.9 — deep in overbought territory — while the share price trades 12.57% above its 200-day moving average.

Jefferies Holds Neutral Despite Higher Target

Analyst Marcus Dunford-Castro at Jefferies raised his price objective on BASF from €43 to €49 on 20 May, but maintained a "Hold" rating. The new target sits below the current market price, suggesting the stock has already priced in much of the good news. The cautious stance is rooted in the same structural issue that has dogged the chemicals sector for months: prices are still elevated, but volumes are not picking up convincingly.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?

According to the Jefferies note, much of the recent price strength was driven by geopolitical tensions around the Middle East, an effect that now appears to be fading. If chemicals prices start to soften, BASF will need a genuine improvement in industrial demand to keep earnings momentum going — and that recovery has yet to materialise.

The house underscored its selective approach by downgrading peer Lanxess to "Underperform", citing a share price rally that had overshot earnings expectations.

Q1 Earnings: A Mixed Picture

First-quarter results reveal the balancing act BASF is attempting. Earnings per share rose to €1.06 from €0.91 a year earlier, helped by the buyback effect and some volume gains, particularly from Asia. Revenue, however, slipped 3.0% to €16.02 billion from €16.51 billion, squeezed by pricing pressure and currency headwinds. EBITDA before special items came in at roughly €2.4 billion.

The group is sticking to its full-year guidance: EBITDA before special items of between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion, and free cash flow of €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion. The dividend has been held steady at €2.25 per share for both 2024 and 2025, reinforcing the focus on predictable capital returns.

The average analyst target stands at €51.22, close to the current share price and implying limited upside from here. Consensus forecasts suggest EPS of between €2.69 and €2.73 for the full year.

BASF at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Long-Term Bets on Computing

Away from the cyclical noise, BASF continues to invest in emerging technologies. Together with NVIDIA, researchers have successfully simulated 60 qubits on the NVIDIA Eos H100 supercomputer — a milestone in a partnership that began in 2017. For a chemicals company, faster molecular simulation could eventually open up efficiencies in research, logistics and machine learning.

In the near term, however, the stock's direction hinges on the answer to a single question: will higher prices finally translate into real demand? For now, the buyback provides a floor, but the rally looks fully priced. The next catalyst arrives on 29 July with second-quarter numbers, when investors will watch closely whether volume growth and cost discipline can absorb the lingering headwinds from pricing and currency.

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BASF Stock: New Analysis - 20 May

Fresh BASF information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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