BayWa's Q1 Numbers Deliver a Mixed Message as a Dashed €1.7bn Sale Rewrites the Restructuring Script

BayWa is navigating a punishing contradiction. First-quarter revenue plunged by roughly a third to €2.3bn from €3.6bn a year earlier, yet adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation came in above the target set in the company's own restructuring blueprint — and clearly ahead of the prior-year comparable. The market, however, chose to focus on the bigger picture: the stock slumped more than 10% to €12.00 on the day, a level some 44% below its 52-week peak. The sell-off reflects deep unease about the feasibility of a debt-reduction plan that has already been overtaken by events.

The revenue fall is deeper than it first appears. After stripping out the impact of disposals — most notably the sale of the Cefetra Group — the underlying decline still came in at 18.2%. Management blames adverse weather, a weak construction backdrop and the Iran conflict, which has been pushing up diesel, fertiliser and petrochemical prices since late February. The operating improvement, meanwhile, was driven by a sharper focus on higher-margin products and a more disciplined portfolio, according to Chief Financial Officer Matthias Rapp. Chief Restructuring Officer Michael Baur has acknowledged that the original plan needs a fundamental rethink.

That rethink has been forced by the collapse of what was once the centrepiece of the strategy: the sale of a 51% stake in BayWa's renewable-energy subsidiary, BayWa r.e. AG, which had been expected to raise €1.7bn. The deal fell apart after the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by President Donald Trump eliminated US subsidies for wind and solar projects, making the unit effectively unsaleable under current conditions. The new concept will now have to involve a debt haircut, with creditors being asked to forgo roughly €1bn. The severity of the situation was underscored by the news that the Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken already wrote down a €220m Schuldschein loan by 60%. A standstill agreement with core lenders remains in place until autumn 2026, buying time for the revised plan to take shape.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BayWa?

The next big piece of the jigsaw is the sale of New Zealand-based fruit subsidiary T&G Global, in which BayWa holds a 74% stake. Goldman Sachs has been searching for a buyer since March 2026. T&G generated $1.3bn in revenue in 2024 and returned to profit with a net income of $16m. The expected proceeds are around €300m. However, the process is being held up by the minority shareholder, Hong Kong's Joy Wing Mau Group. Three hard deadlines loom before autumn 2026: BayWa must deliver the audited annual report for 2025, secure bank approval to extend the standstill, and close the T&G sale. If any of these milestones is missed, the entire restructuring framework could unravel.

To complicate matters further, the 2025 annual report has been postponed. The auditor refuses to sign off until the finalised restructuring concept is in hand, pushing the publication date to 30 October 2026. In the meantime, a court has appointed three new experts to the supervisory board — Dr. Ines Kapphan, Solveig Menard-Galli and Christine Rittner-Koch — whose mandates are to be confirmed by the annual general meeting.

For all the operational bright spots, the market remains deeply sceptical. Over the past 30 days, BayWa's shares have lost 15.31% of their value, and since the start of the year the decline has totalled 25.67%. The company has so far secured €1.3bn in debt reduction — less than a third of the €4bn goal set for 2028 — and the clock is ticking. Whether the revamped plan can withstand weaker asset-sale proceeds and fresh geopolitical headwinds will determine BayWa's fate this autumn.

Ad

BayWa Stock: New Analysis - 29 May

Fresh BayWa information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated BayWa analysis...

en | DE0005194005 | BAYWAS | boerse | 69443845 |