BYD's Export Engine Revs as China Market Cools — Can the Balance Hold?
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 14:36 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
BYD is racing to rewrite its growth narrative. While the Chinese auto maker's home-market grip continues to loosen, international sales are surging at a pace that has caught the attention of both analysts and investors. Macquarie, for one, sees the recent share-price slide as a buying opportunity for patient shareholders, even as it trimmed its 12-month price target by 4% to HK$113 and maintained an "Outperform" rating.
The Hong Kong-listed H-shares have been on a rollercoaster. After closing Monday at €9.34 — good for a 14% weekly gain — the stock remains roughly 37% below its 52-week high of €14.80 from July 2025. The year-to-date deficit stands at about 15%. Yet Macquarie argues that the known headwinds — intensifying competition, tepid domestic demand, geopolitical friction — are largely priced in. At 15 times expected earnings, BYD trades at its cheapest valuation in a decade.
The tension underlying that thesis is stark. BYD's share of the Chinese auto market collapsed from 37% in February 2025 to 18% in January 2026. Macquarie projects a partial recovery to around 25% for the full year, aided by new models and the rollout of the second-generation Blade battery, which can charge a vehicle to 70% capacity in five minutes. But the real momentum is coming from abroad. In the first half of 2026, exports accounted for 44% of BYD's vehicle sales, nearly double the 23% recorded for all of 2025.
June's global figures underscore the shift. Worldwide sales of new-energy vehicles hit 403,472 units, up 5.5% year on year and marking a second consecutive month of growth after an eight-month slide. Overseas deliveries alone reached a record 175,349 vehicles — a 94.7% surge from a year earlier.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Europe is a key battleground. In Germany, BYD sold 6,265 cars in June, a monthly record for the continent's largest auto market, bringing the first-half total to 26,264 units. Across the Channel, the company registered nearly 38,000 vehicles in the UK between January and June, a jump of close to 95%. June's British tally of more than 6,200 units gave BYD a roughly 3% market share, driven largely by the Seal U DM-i plug-in hybrid. Three more models are slated for the second half.
To safeguard its European ambitions from EU import tariffs, BYD is accelerating local production. The factory in Szeged, Hungary, is on track to begin vehicle assembly in the fourth quarter of 2026. Plans for a billion-dollar plant in Turkey have been put on hold as the company focuses on the Hungarian site. Additional factories are under development in Thailand, Brazil, and Indonesia, all designed to bypass trade barriers and capture scale advantages.
BYD is also building out its fast-charging infrastructure. The proprietary network currently includes 7,000 stations, with a target of 20,000 by the end of 2026. Outside of passenger cars, the company recently shipped 22 electric double-decker buses to London, signaling broader ambitions in commercial vehicles.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
On the technical side, the stock is still trading below both its 50-day moving average of €9.88 and its 200-day average of €10.74, confirming the broader downtrend. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.5, while annualized 30-day volatility above 40% suggests sharp moves in either direction remain likely. The stock hit a 2026 low of €8.03 on June 30 and has since recovered about 16%.
The next major catalyst comes on August 29, when BYD reports second-quarter earnings. Analysts expect full-year profit of 4.42 yuan per share. For Macquarie, the investment case hinges on whether export momentum can offset China's erosion quickly enough to stabilize margins. Each month's delivery numbers and the upcoming quarterly report will test whether that equation adds up.
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