Circus SE's Growth Ambitions Hinge on Audited Results as Market Remains Deeply Skeptical
20.06.2026 - 15:24:22 | boerse-global.de
The divergence between Circus SE's operational narrative and its stock price is becoming a chasm. The autonomous robotics company has racked up a string of commercial and production wins, yet its shares have fallen almost 73% from their 52-week high of €23.50 to close at €6.36 on Friday. Year-to-date, the stock is down roughly 47%. Investors are waiting for hard proof that the story translates into revenue.
That proof is due within days. The audited annual report for 2025—the company's first fully testified set of numbers—will finally be published. Preliminary figures showed revenue of €1.5 million, a sharp jump from €0.25 million in the prior year, and an operating loss of €18.5 million. Adjusted for €3.2 million in one-off items from acquisitions and capital increases, the loss came to €15.3 million. The testied accounts will reveal whether those costs were truly non-recurring and provide a first benchmark against management's own forecasts.
Meanwhile, the analyst community is split not on whether to buy, but on how much the stock is worth. MWB Research maintains a price target of €46, arguing that CircusOS—the company's proprietary operating system—justifies technology-sector multiples once monetization kicks in. Montega, which initiated coverage with a €10 target, ties that figure explicitly to a smooth production ramp and does not expect an operating break-even until 2027. The €36 gap between the two targets underscores a single pivotal question: how quickly will CircusOS generate recurring software revenue?
On the revenue front, the two houses are not far apart. Montega models €44.2 million for 2026, while management targets as much as €55 million for the current year. For 2028, Montega projects nearly €140 million, driven by hardware scaling and a software business expected to exceed €50 million. The ambitious top-line numbers rest on a pile of pre-orders: over 8,000, representing a theoretical value of more than €1.6 billion. Yet only about 500 orders have been secured, spread across roughly 40 customers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?
Marquee pilot projects abound, but firm contracts remain elusive. REWE will decide on a broad rollout only in the autumn; at present the system is deployed in a single Düsseldorf store. Mercedes-Benz plans to place the robot chef in its Sindelfingen factory canteen from summer 2026, serving shift workers. The Bundeswehr uses the military outdoor robot in Ukraine and Lithuania, and NATO interest is spreading—over ten member states are in talks. Circus Defence expects a larger military order in the second half of this year, two years ahead of its original timeline.
Production is ramping up in tandem. Partner Celestica has halved the manufacturing time for the CA-1 robot from eight to four weeks. After building 16 units in the first quarter, capacity is set to double in Q2 and again in Q3. By the fourth quarter, Circus plans to produce 64 units per month, enough to meet the annual forecast of 205 units. The company also entered the US market via the outright acquisition of Kitchen Robotics for a low six-figure sum, gaining certifications that allow an immediate launch in the second half of the year.
None of this has impressed the market. The stock now trades almost 43% below its 200-day moving average, a sign of persistent selling pressure. Even the more conservative analyst target of €10 is nearly 60% above the current price, a gap that hints at deep uncertainty. A quarterly update call is scheduled for July 16, by which time the testied annual report must have been published. Investors will also scrutinise any initial Q2 revenue figures to see whether the defence contracts and production ramp are converting into measurable sales.
Circus at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For the moment, Circus SE presents a stark contrast: a company that talks of 64 robots rolling off the line each month and a potential €1.6 billion order book, but whose market capitalisation has been cut by nearly three-quarters this year alone. The audited accounts will either validate the slide as an overreaction or provide the first solid evidence that the numbers do not yet add up.
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