Circus SE: The €36 Divide Between Two Buy Ratings and What It Reveals About the Company's Future
20.06.2026 - 16:15:04 | boerse-global.de
Two analysts, both recommending investors buy Circus SE shares. Yet their price targets are separated by €36 — mwb research sees €46, while Montega has just initiated coverage at €10 a piece. That chasm underscores the binary nature of the bet: either CircusOS, the company's proprietary operating system, delivers on a platform-style valuation, or the stock remains tethered to hardware execution and the dwindling patience of a market that has already wiped 47% off the share price since the start of the year.
The equity closed Friday at €6.36, a full 73% below its 52-week high of €23.50. Neither target looks remotely close to the current level, but the two valuations rest on drastically different assumptions about when and how quickly software monetisation kicks in. For mwb, CircusOS justifies tech multiples the moment recurring revenue begins to flow. Montega, by contrast, ties its €10 target explicitly to a smooth production ramp-up and sees the company reaching operational break-even only in 2027.
Audited results, Alberts and the dilution question
Behind the analyst debate lies a set of hard deadlines that will test management's credibility. The audited annual report for 2025 must be published by the end of June. For now, shareholders only have preliminary figures: revenue of roughly €1.5 million — up from €0.25 million a year earlier, though system deliveries only began in the fourth quarter — and an adjusted EBITDA loss of €15.3 million. The unadjusted figure came in at minus €18.5 million, actually better than the €21 million deficit analysts had pencilled in. One-off acquisition and capital-increase costs totalled €3.2 million; the audited statement will reveal whether those charges truly were exceptional.
Completing the Alberts takeover is running in parallel. The Belgian food-robotics specialist brings marquee clients such as Danone and Decathlon and opens up compact, one-square-metre robotics for offices and clinics. But the transaction is being paid entirely in Circus shares, and those shares are subject to a 30-month lock-up. The precise purchase price — and therefore the dilution for existing shareholders — will only be disclosed at closing. That uncertainty has fuelled much of the market's scepticism.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?
Defence pivot gains traction while customers remain cautious
Circus has been working to reduce its dependence on the restaurant sector by pushing into defence. The CA-M outdoor military robot passed its prototype test and is now expected to generate its first revenue in 2026 — two years ahead of the original schedule. Lithuania’s armed forces are already using the system along NATO’s eastern flank, and the Bundeswehr and Ukraine are also on the customer list. Management is in active talks with more than ten additional NATO member states and has flagged a larger military order for the second half of the year.
Yet even these advances have not translated into firm, cash-generating contracts. Of the more than 8,000 pre-orders the company cites — representing a theoretical value of over €1.6 billion — only about 500 are backed by confirmed orders from roughly 40 customers. High-profile pilot projects with REWE in Düsseldorf and Mercedes-Benz in Sindelfingen remain without binding delivery agreements. REWE is not expected to decide on a broad rollout until autumn, while Mercedes has pencilled in a deployment at its Sindelfingen plant for summer 2026.
Production gathering speed, but the stock isn't buying it
On the manufacturing front, Circus is making tangible progress. Its Canadian partner Celestica has halved the build time of the CA-1 robot to around four weeks. After producing 16 units in the first quarter, capacity is set to double in each of the next two quarters, reaching 64 units per month by Q4 — roughly enough to cover the annual demand of 205 units that Montega models into its numbers.
Circus at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite everything, management has held firm on its full-year revenue guidance of €44 million to €55 million. Monday’s investor roundtable is expected to provide more colour on US integration and liquidity, and a quarterly update call follows on July 16. By then, the audited report must be out and first quarterly figures will show whether the defence orders and production ramp are finally translating into measurable revenue. For now, the gap between two buy ratings tells the story: one analyst bets on a platform future, the other on getting the factory floor right — and the market is siding with neither.
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