Commerzbank's Record Profit Target and Technical Rally Challenge UniCredit's Hostile Pursuit
20.06.2026 - 12:01:46 | boerse-global.de
Commerzbank shares are trading just a whisker from their 52-week peak, having gained nearly 39% over the past twelve months, even as UniCredit’s hostile tender offer stumbles through an underwhelming first acceptance period. The stock closed last week at €38.33, a mere 1.3% below the year’s high of €38.85, while the Italian lender’s bid faces mounting questions over the authenticity of the support it has garnered. This divergence between market price and offer value underscores the growing confidence among independent investors that Commerzbank is worth more on its own.
UniCredit’s initial acceptance deadline expired on June 10 with only 12.51% of Commerzbank shareholders having tendered their shares. Combined with the Italian bank’s existing 26.77% direct stake and instruments that give it the right to claim another 3.22% through physical delivery, its total position now stands at 42.5%. Yet Commerzbank has openly contested the quality of those acceptances. In a statement on June 10, management said its own data showed not a single institutional investor had tendered shares; the ones that came in, it argued, were nearly all from banks and parties connected to UniCredit. The lender also reported an unusual spike in securities lending activity in its own stock and has been feeding relevant data to BaFin, the German financial regulator.
The stock’s strength is rooted in more than just defiant rhetoric. Commerzbank posted an operating result of €1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and raised its full-year net income target to at least €3.4 billion, up from a prior goal of more than €3.2 billion. Looking further ahead, management aims for a net return on equity of about 21% by 2030, with net income climbing to €5.9 billion and total revenue reaching €16.8 billion. These projections provide a compelling counterpoint to the implied value of UniCredit’s offer of 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share — a deal that has consistently been worth roughly 6% less than the market price during the acceptance period.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Technically, the charts reinforce the bullish narrative. The 50-day moving average sits at €36.11 and the 200-day average at €33.97, both well below the current price. The relative strength index stands at 63.8, elevated but not yet in overbought territory. The immediate hurdle remains the 52-week ceiling at €38.85. If the stock can clear that level convincingly, it would validate the sector’s relative strength and give further ammunition to those betting that Commerzbank can preserve its independence.
No fresh earnings reports are due until August, so near-term direction will be shaped by macro data. On June 23, the German Finance Ministry publishes its May monthly report, and the following day the ifo Institute releases its June business climate index. The ifo reading had already risen to 84.9 points in May from 84.5 in April, and for a bank heavily exposed to German corporate lending, such indicators feed directly into expectations for credit demand and provisioning. The Bundesbank’s June monthly report, which includes an updated economic forecast for Germany, also adds to the data flow.
The second and final acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer runs until July 3. Until then, the battle for Commerzbank will be fought on two fronts: one in the boardroom, where management continues to reject the bid as lacking both a fair premium and a convincing integration plan; the other on the trading floor, where the stock’s sustained premium above the offer price speaks louder than any press release. If the final acceptance tally again falls short of UniCredit’s hopes, the Italian bank may have to rethink its approach. For now, Commerzbank’s rally has handed its board the strongest possible argument against surrender.
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