Commerzbank Stock Holds Near 52-Week High as UniCredit’s Tender Success Comes Under Fire
20.06.2026 - 13:33:47 | boerse-global.de
The battle for control of Commerzbank has entered a new phase of open confrontation, with UniCredit claiming effective access to 42.5% of the German lender’s shares while the Frankfurt-based management questions the legitimacy of those holdings. The stock, meanwhile, continues to trade just a whisper below its peak, reflecting the market’s scepticism that the Italian bank’s exchange offer represents fair value.
UniCredit’s overall position is built on three layers. It already owned 26.77% of Commerzbank directly, added 3.22% through instruments that require physical delivery of shares, and then saw 12.51% of shareholders accept its tender during the first offer period that ended last week. The Italian bank has also secured options that could lift its potential reach to 42.5% — and, because Commerzbank is buying back its own stock, that figure could climb above 44%. A second acceptance window opened on Saturday and runs until 3 July 2026.
But Commerzbank’s management has cast doubt on the quality of the takers. In a statement on 10 June, the bank said its own data showed that not a single institutional investor had tendered shares during the first period. Instead, the incoming paper appeared to come almost exclusively from banks and entities linked to UniCredit. Commerzbank also reported an unusual increase in the lending of its stock and has been feeding information to Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin. The works council has filed a criminal complaint for suspected market manipulation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
The offer itself — 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share — has so far failed to excite independent holders. Commerzbank’s stock closed Friday at €38.37, only 1.24% below its 52-week high of €38.85. Back on 10 June, the gap between the market price and the implied value of UniCredit’s paper was roughly €2.30, or about 6%. That premium suggests that the vast majority of shareholders believe Commerzbank is worth more than what Andrea Orcel’s bank is offering, at least while UniCredit’s own share price remains volatile.
Frankfurt’s defence is robust on multiple fronts. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp has accused UniCredit of inflating its position via complex derivatives. The German government, which still holds roughly 12% of Commerzbank, opposes the takeover and insists on the lender’s independence. Orcel, for his part, has warned that if dialogue does not improve, he could replace senior management. BaFin has opened a review of the entire affair.
The final result of the tender process will be announced on 8 July 2026, five days after the second acceptance period closes. Until then, the success of the bid hinges on the performance of UniCredit’s own stock, given that the exchange offer provides virtually no premium to Commerzbank’s current price. If UniCredit shares slide further, the already lukewarm appetite among free-float holders could evaporate entirely.
Investors who bought Commerzbank a year ago are sitting on a gain of nearly 39%, and the stock now trades 12.94% above its 200-day moving average of €33.97. That embedded takeover premium is the central driver of the share price — but as the first tender period showed, drawing a clear line between genuine market confidence and speculative froth is becoming harder by the day.
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