Fibre Prices and a Brussels Ban: Why Lenzing's Rally May Have Further to Run
20.06.2026 - 02:31:17 | boerse-global.de
The Austrian fibre specialist has staged a stunning breakout, surging nearly 21% in a single week and punching through to a 52-week high of €29.75 on Friday. But with the relative strength index now flashing overbought at 76 and the stock dipping 1.4% to €28.45, the market is asking whether the move is sustainable — or just a short squeeze waiting to unwind.
Behind the technical froth, however, lies a convergence of forces that could give the rally more substance than a typical cyclical bounce. The clearest vote of confidence came on 17 June, when Berenberg upgraded Lenzing to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to €29.50 from €24.00. The real sting in the analysis, though, is not the new target but the earnings revision. The bank argues that current consensus EBITDA estimates for 2026 are far too low, driven by rising prices for wood-based fibres — themselves underpinned by firmer cotton prices. Berenberg now sees a loss per share of just €0.57 for 2026, a dramatic improvement on the previous forecast of –€2.61. Losses are still pencilled in for 2027 and 2028, and no dividends are expected for the next three financial years.
The upgrade landed alongside a first-quarter report that, while still mixed, offered the first tangible evidence of a floor under earnings. Lenzing swung to a net profit of €24 million in Q1 2026 after three consecutive quarterly losses. EBITDA came in at €116.3 million and free cash flow at €33.8 million. The top line remains under pressure — revenue fell 10.8% year on year to €615.7 million, which Lenzing attributes to lower sales volumes and fibre prices. But versus the fourth quarter of 2025, volumes held steady and prices rose. That sequential inflection is precisely the data point Berenberg’s thesis rests on.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lenzing?
A less discussed but potentially powerful structural driver is the European Union’s impending ban on the destruction of unsold clothing, which takes effect in July 2026. For a producer of biodegradable cellulose fibres, that regulation is a clear tailwind. The market has already begun pricing in a shift from conventional fast fashion to sustainable materials, and Lenzing, with its market capitalisation back above €1 billion, is positioning itself as a beneficiary. The days of the stock languishing as a portfolio laggard while tech names soared appear to be over.
Still, the near-term picture calls for caution. With the RSI deep in overbought territory, the dip to €28.45 on Friday looks like the start of profit-taking. The stock now trades roughly 18% above its 50-day moving average of €24.08 and some 18% above the 200-day line at €24.18. Those are stretched multiples for a company still reporting negative earnings, and any disappointment could trigger a sharp reversion. The real test comes on 5 August, when Lenzing publishes its half-year results. If the numbers confirm that the fibre price recovery is sticking, Berenberg’s revised EBITDA estimates may prove conservative. If not, the short-term technicals will turn into a real drag.
For now, the message from the analyst community is clear: Lenzing is no longer a value trap. The combination of a cyclical trough, rising fibre prices, and a regulatory deadline in Brussels gives the story a rare blend of momentum and structural support. Whether the stock can hold its gains through the summer depends on whether the data delivers.
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