From Doubling Target to Insider Sale: Nvidia’s Contradictory Signals as It Pours $150 Billion into Taiwan

Nvidia is living two lives. One is the company that just posted a record quarterly revenue of $81.62 billion and is pouring $150 billion a year into Taiwan to cement its AI dominance. The other is a stock that has slipped 7.6% from its 52-week high of €201 and saw a director sell shares last week – right as an analyst slapped a $425 price target on the chipmaker.

The divergence has never been starker. Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth lifted his target from $360 to $425, arguing that Nvidia remains the primary beneficiary as cloud giants pump billions into AI data centres. The addressable market for AI chips, he believes, could swell to trillions of dollars. At a current share price of around €185.78, that target implies almost a doubling.

Yet the market is not entirely buying the euphoria. On Friday, the stock edged up less than 1%, leaving the relative strength index at 36.4 – a level that suggests the shares are approaching oversold territory but have yet to bounce convincingly. Volume that day was 65% above the average, with 282 million shares changing hands, as investors digested a flurry of news.

A Director’s Well-Timed Exit

Adding to the caution: director John Dabiri sold 625 shares through a pre-arranged trading plan, netting just over $133,000. The transaction was hardly a blockbuster in dollar terms, but the timing – a day after Feinseth’s upgraded target – did little to soothe nerves. The stock ended the week down about 2%.

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Technicians point to the 50-day moving average near €171 as a potential support level if the decline extends, with resistance pegged at roughly €190. Fifty-one of 54 analysts covering the stock still rate it a buy, and the consensus price target of around €262 sits well above current levels. That gap between analyst confidence and market price is a recurring theme.

The $150 Billion Taiwan Bet

While the short-term price action flickers, Jensen Huang is thinking in decades. On the eve of Computex 2026 in Taipei, the CEO committed to a tenfold increase in Nvidia’s annual investment in Taiwan, to $150 billion. The money will flow into production, infrastructure and system assembly. A new Asia-Pacific headquarters called “Constellation” is planned for Taipei, designed to house several thousand engineers and reach full capacity by 2030.

Huang described Taiwan as the “epicentre” of the global AI revolution. The island’s server exports have rocketed from $571 million in 2017 to an estimated $60 billion this year. Key partners include TSMC, which commands roughly 72% of advanced chip fabrication, alongside Foxconn, Quanta Computer and Wistron.

China: From 95% to Zero

The flip side of Nvidia’s geographic focus is its near-total loss of the Chinese AI chip market. Huang acknowledged that the company’s share in China has fallen from 95% to effectively zero, a direct consequence of US export controls. Local rival Huawei has filled the void.

Huang continues to maintain ties with the mainland, reportedly accepting a seat on the advisory board of Tsinghua University’s business school – a 65-member council chaired by Apple’s Tim Cook that includes Elon Musk and Satya Nadella. Analysts see the move as a careful navigation of the geopolitical minefield.

Korea Next, Rubin in Doubt

Next week, Huang travels to South Korea for his first visit since October 2025. Talks are scheduled with LG chief Koo Kwang-mo on “Physical AI”, as well as with Samsung and the SK conglomerate about memory supplies. The timing is strategic: Samsung is preparing samples of its new HBM4E memory (12 layers, 48 GB) for June 2026, and Nvidia needs the bandwidth for its next GPU generation.

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That next generation, the Rubin-CPX platform, is facing headwinds. Industry sources indicate that launch plans for the second half of 2026 are slipping – orders for specialised memory and substrates have recently been absent. Nvidia officially stands by its Vera-Rubin architecture as a future cornerstone, but supply-chain signals now point to delays.

Record Numbers, but a Widening Gap

None of this detracts from Nvidia’s financial might. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company posted record revenue of $81.62 billion, up 85% year-on-year. The data-centre segment alone contributed $75.2 billion. Its market capitalisation exceeds $5 trillion, and a new $80 billion share buyback programme, coupled with a modest dividend increase to $0.25, underscores the cash generation.

Yet the gap between ambition and delivery is widening. Billions pour into Taiwan while China evaporates. The Rubin roadmap wobbles. And while Feinseth sees $425, a director sold – a reminder that even the greatest AI story can’t escape the tug of war between optimism and execution. The next milestones: Huang’s Korea visit, Samsung’s HBM4E samples in June, and whatever Jensen reveals at Computex.

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