Gold's Split Screen: PBoC's Largest Buy in 18 Months vs JPMorgan's Steep Target Cut
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 11:52 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
For every seller there is a buyer, and nowhere is that adage more visible right now than in the gold market. As China’s central bank added nearly 10 tonnes to its vaults in May — its biggest monthly purchase in a year and a half — JPMorgan slashed its fourth-quarter 2026 price target by a full $1,500 an ounce, dragging the metal deeper into a consolidation zone that has left it trapped between $4,100 and $4,225.
The US bank now sees gold at $4,500 by year-end, down from its earlier $6,000 forecast. The revision, which surprised markets, came as spot gold hovered around $4,141, easing from Monday’s close of $4,155.70. On a weekly basis the metal still holds a gain of 3.33 percent, but the monthly decline stands at 4.55 percent. JPMorgan remains constructive for the medium term, but expects near-term upside to be capped by waning investment demand.
Beijing’s central bank, by contrast, is showing no such hesitation. Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) show holdings rose by 320,000 ounces in May — equivalent to 9.95 tonnes — the strongest monthly increase since December 2024. This extends the PBoC’s buying streak to 20 consecutive months, taking total reserves to approximately 74.96 million ounces, or roughly 2,331 tonnes. Market observers say the institution is deliberately taking advantage of the price pullback from January’s all-time high near $5,600. Poland is following a similar script: its central bank added about 18 tonnes of gold in May, providing structural support that partially offsets outflows from gold ETFs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
On the macro front, last week’s US payrolls report for June showed only 57,000 new jobs, far below economists’ expectations. The disappointing reading initially dampened expectations for further rate hikes and pushed the probability of a Fed pause in July to roughly 77 percent. Yet gold failed to rally decisively, as a firmer dollar — the dollar index rose about 0.3 percent — and steady 10-year Treasury yields around 4.45 percent kept the metal’s gains in check. The ISM services PMI for June slipped to 54.0 from 54.5, adding to the narrative of a cooling economy, but the data were not weak enough to propel gold through the $4,200 resistance.
The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its June 16–17 meeting, due Wednesday, are now the focal point. Traders hope to glean deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debate on inflation and the future path of interest rates. Until then, gold’s technical picture suggests a market in equilibrium: the resistance zone between $4,200 and $4,225 has held firm, while the $4,100–$4,130 area provides a floor. The relative strength index sits at 44.7, a neutral reading that offers no directional bias.
The discordant views among major institutions underscore the uncertainty. JPMorgan’s sharp target cut contrasts with UBS, which maintains a 12-month goal of up to $5,200. The World Gold Council’s base case for the second half of 2026 sees gold trading sideways around $4,100, supported by sovereign buying but constrained by the Fed’s restrictive stance and high real yields. For now, gold remains caught in a narrow channel, waiting for Wednesday’s Fed minutes — and perhaps a clearer signal on rates — to tip the scales one way or the other.
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