Institutions Double Down on Plug Power as Q1 Losses Shrink and UK Green Hydrogen Project Gets Go-Ahead

Plug Power has started attracting heavyweight institutional backing even as Wall Street remains cautious on the hydrogen fuel-cell company’s path to profitability. BlackRock boosted its position by nearly 30% in the first quarter, Renaissance Technologies nearly doubled its stake, and UBS added 63% to its holding. The buying spree by 236 institutional investors follows a first-quarter earnings beat and a critical project milestone in the UK – developments that have propelled the stock roughly 80% higher since the start of the year.

The quarterly results, released in May, showed tangible progress in Plug Power’s turnaround effort. Revenue came in at $163.5 million, topping the analyst consensus of $141.2 million by about 17% and representing a 22% jump from the year-ago period. More tellingly, the gross margin improved dramatically from negative 55% to negative 13%, while the adjusted net loss per share narrowed to 8 cents from 18 cents a year earlier. The company still burned through $245 million in net losses during the quarter, but management characterized the performance as evidence of “strong commercial execution.” Key customers Walmart and Amazon continue to drive the material-handling segment, while the electrolyzer business is also ramping up.

That electrolyzer business took a concrete step forward in May with the final investment decision for the Barrow Green Hydrogen project in Cumbria, northwest England. Plug Power will supply six of its 5-MW GenEco PEM electrolyzers to the 30-MW facility, which is expected to produce roughly 100 GWh of green hydrogen annually. The output will go directly to a nearby Kimberly-Clark factory, cutting the plant’s natural gas consumption by up to 50% and eliminating about 18,300 tonnes of CO? emissions per year. A long-term power purchase agreement with SEFE underpins the project economics. Barrow is the first of three UK hydrogen projects Plug Power has secured under the government’s hydrogen subsidy program; decisions on the Trafford and Langage projects are still pending.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?

Despite the operational milestones, analyst views remain split. B. Riley raised its price target to $5.00 and reiterated a buy rating, citing the growing project pipeline and the successful FID. On the other end of the spectrum, the investment research platform Simply Wall St calculates a “narrative fair value” of just $2.83, warning that the stock could tumble if Plug Power fails to hit its aggressive growth targets. The broader Wall Street consensus among 20 analysts is “Hold,” with an average price target of $3.62 – below the current trading level. The company’s own internal projections call for $1.2 billion in revenue and $138.6 million in profit by 2029, whereas analysts are modeling a more conservative $1.0 billion and $114 million.

Plug Power ended the first quarter with more than $802 million in cash on hand, and the company expects to monetize certain hydrogen project assets for around $275 million this year. The first tranche of that monetization – roughly $142 million – is slated to close in June. These non-dilutive funds are critical to bridging the gap to profitability. Management has laid out a clear timeline: positive EBITDAS by the fourth quarter of 2026, positive operating income by end of 2027, and full profitability by end of 2028. Whether those targets are achieved will determine if the stock’s recent rally can be sustained.

The technical picture adds another layer of nuance. The relative strength index has fallen to 20.4, a level that typically signals an oversold condition after the stock’s sharp ascent from single-digit prices at the start of the year. The 52-week high of €3.56 was touched on Wednesday before a 4% pullback on Friday brought the Xetra-listed shares to €3.40. The stock has already recovered most of its losses from the 2023-2025 downturn, but the run-up leaves little room for error. The fourth quarter of 2026 will be the ultimate test: that is when Plug Power must deliver the positive EBITDAS it has promised.

Ad

Plug Power Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

Fresh Plug Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Plug Power analysis...

en | US72919P2020 | INSTITUTIONS | boerse | 69449684 |