ITM Power’s Record Rally Gathers Pace Ahead of Gigafactory Decision and Rheinmetall Decentralisation Pact

ITM Power shares stormed to a new 52-week high on Thursday, piercing the 200 pence barrier to close at 208.40p, as investors digested a pair of strategic moves that could define the company’s trajectory for years. The breakout — the fifth consecutive daily gain — came after days of testing the psychologically important level on rising volume, and sets the stage for a pivotal June in which the hydrogen specialist is due to take a final investment decision on a 1-gigawatt manufacturing line for its next-generation Chronos electrolyser.

Adding to the momentum, ITM Power last week unveiled an unusual but ambitious alliance with defence and automotive group Rheinmetall. Dubbed Giga PtX, the project envisions hundreds of decentralised production sites across Europe, each with an electrolysis capacity of up to 50 megawatts and an annual e?fuel output of 5,000 to 7,000 tonnes. The United Kingdom will host the first deployment. ITM will supply the electrolysers, while Rheinmetall brings its power?to?X know?how. Chief executive Dennis Schulz argued the pairing of energy technology and defence industry was deliberate: “Reliable access to fuel is a fundamental prerequisite for defence capability,” he said, adding that decentralised production makes supply chains more resilient than conventional centralised models.

The Chronos expansion is itself backed by a state grant worth £86.5 million, awarded in April by the UK government and Great British Energy. The new line is central to the company’s strategy of slashing the cost of green hydrogen through standardised, large?scale manufacturing. Analysts have already responded favourably: Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to 170 pence, citing an accelerated path to profitability, while Jefferies upgraded the stock to “buy” on the strength of ITM Power’s product standardisation and a solid project pipeline.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

Beyond the headline catalysts, the company is steadily building its presence in Germany. A 710?megawatt partnership with Stablegrid and a separate 120?megawatt project with Uniper are advancing, contributing to an order book of roughly £152 million. Planning permission has also been secured for the Humber H2ub facility, which from 2029 will deploy six POSEIDON modules. At Thursday’s close, ITM Power’s market capitalisation stood at just under £1.1 billion, with the stock comfortably above both its 50? and 200?day moving averages.

Yet the mood in the market is not universally ebullient. Data provider news?sentiment scores place ITM Power at just 0.30, well below the energy sector average of 0.72. The disparity suggests that while the share price has surged, broader conviction remains lukewarm. That caution is, however, being slowly unwound by short sellers. Aggregate short positions have fallen to 1.63 per cent, and Helikon Investments nearly halved its own bet from 1.46 per cent in mid?May to 0.83 per cent by 27 May — a sign that at least some of the pessimists are retreating.

The coming weeks will determine whether the rally can sustain its altitude. The final investment decision on the Chronos gigafactory in June is the most immediate catalyst, but the Giga PtX partnership adds a second, longer?term narrative tied to Europe’s energy and defence security. Whether the sentiment score catches up with the stock price will depend on concrete milestones from both fronts — starting with the UK pilot site for the Rheinmetall alliance.

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