KNDS Clears Brussels Hurdle for Summer IPO — But Franco-German Power Struggle Caps Valuation at €20bn
20.06.2026 - 03:52:04 | boerse-global.de
The European Commission has waved through Germany’s plan to take a 40% stake in KNDS without conditions, removing the final regulatory barrier to the defence group’s dual listing this summer. Yet even as Berlin prepares to anchor the flotation, a deepening political tug-of-war between Paris and the German government is forcing the underwriting banks to slash their valuation expectations.
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have lowered their estimated range to €18bn–€20bn, down from the €25bn that had circulated earlier. The discount stems directly from the unresolved dispute over strategic veto rights. Germany wants a 40% blocking minority, while France is pushing for an exact mirror arrangement. KNDS management has pushed back, arguing that excessive state interference would cripple operational flexibility.
On the product front, KNDS used the Eurosatory defence exhibition in Paris to unveil two flagship systems. The CAPINT main battle tank marries a modified Leopard 2A8 chassis with an unmanned ASCALON turret armed with a French 120-mm smoothbore gun. The company positions it as a bridge technology until the pan-European MGCS programme enters serial production, expected around mid-next decade with a first demonstrator due in 2030. Alongside the tank, KNDS presented the LORAS artillery system, a 155-mm concept mounted on the German Boxer armoured vehicle that can reach targets beyond 60 kilometres — and up to 100 kilometres with specialised munitions.
The order book is already bulging. Britain’s army has placed a nearly £1bn order for 72 RCH 155 howitzers, with first deliveries scheduled for 2028. Closer to home, the German Bundeswehr plans to buy at least 75 more Leopard tanks, providing a steady production base. To handle the ramp-up, KNDS is adding a fourth machining line at its Roanne factory in France, supplied by Fives and due to go live in 2027, promising a significant productivity boost.
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The group also touted seven other systems at the show, including the TARGAS anti-drone system, the MARS 3 rocket launcher, and a modular drone launch container. Separately, its EuroTrophy joint venture unveiled an active protection system that uses dedicated radar to detect drones and integrates directly into the Leopard 2.
Brussels’ decision allows Berlin to take a 40% initial stake, which it intends to reduce to around one-third over the medium term. Analysts now peg the tank-maker at roughly €20bn. The state’s role as anchor shareholder is meant to stabilise the IPO, even as the Franco-German standoff keeps a lid on the final price tag.
KNDS is also investing heavily in workforce expansion. Management plans to create up to 5,000 new jobs by the end of the decade, strengthening existing sites such as Kassel, where 2,400 employees already produce key land-system components. A new alliance in Greece with defence firm EODH targets the Boxer wheeled tank programme, with a ten-year revenue potential of up to €200m. EODH will build a new factory focused on robotics and artificial intelligence.
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Investors are now waiting for the official price range, which the company expects to release in the coming summer weeks. The political wrangling may have capped the valuation, but with a €33bn-plus order backlog and a fresh EU green light, KNDS looks set to fire its starting pistol before the autumn.
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