Nebius Doubles Down on AI Infrastructure with $25B Capex Target and Aschenbrenner's $2.6B Stake

Nebius has thrown down the gauntlet in the race for AI computing power, lifting its 2026 investment ceiling to $25 billion while simultaneously drawing a $2.6 billion bet from one of the most closely watched investors in the artificial intelligence ecosystem. The one-two punch has sent the stock to fresh highs and cemented the company’s position as a central plank in the physical infrastructure underpinning the AI revolution.

The Dutch-headquartered firm now plans to spend between $20 billion and $25 billion next year, up sharply from the prior range of $16 billion to $20 billion. Management cited customer contracts already locked in for 2027 that require accelerated capacity delivery, as demand for AI-optimised data centres continues to outstrip available supply. Financing for the ramp-up rests on multiple pillars: asset-backed structures with Meta and Microsoft, $4.3 billion in convertible notes, and a direct $2 billion investment from NVIDIA. At the end of the first quarter, Nebius held $9.3 billion in cash and generated $2.3 billion in operating cash flow.

That balance sheet strength has attracted a heavyweight backer. A mandatory disclosure revealed that Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, now holds 5.6% of Nebius’s Class A shares — roughly 12.41 million shares worth about $2.6 billion at current prices. The fund, which managed $13.7 billion at the end of March after growing 148% since late 2025, has carved out a niche in physical AI infrastructure and data centre energy demand. The filing, dated May 27, stressed that the stake was acquired in the ordinary course of business and not with activist intent. Yet market participants have read the move as a powerful endorsement from an insider who understands the AI supply chain intimately.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

The market responded in kind. On Thursday, the day the holding became public, Nebius shares surged 9% to their highest level in two weeks. By Friday’s close, the stock had added another 2.1% to hit $231.09, with trading volume running 46% above the 90-day average. The rally extends a blistering run: the shares have more than doubled year to date, gaining roughly 130%, and have soared over 420% on a 12-month basis.

Behind the price action lies a business that is delivering on its promises. First-quarter revenue came in at $399 million, a 684% jump from a year earlier. While the company posted a net loss of $100.3 million, the results beat analyst expectations, and the AI-specific EBITDA margin clocked in at 45%. Nebius is also scaling its physical footprint aggressively. During the quarter it secured up to 1.2 gigawatts of power and land for a new AI factory in Pennsylvania, broke ground on a gigawatt-scale facility in Independence, Missouri on May 12, and a week later announced a partnership with Bloom Energy to power the infrastructure buildout. Management is targeting 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of active capacity by year-end, on the way to 5 gigawatts by 2030, with an annual recurring revenue goal of $7 billion to $9 billion, up from $1.9 billion currently.

Wall Street remains broadly constructive. Citigroup holds a buy rating with a $287 price target, while D.A. Davidson upgraded the stock to Neutral on May 18 but lifted its target to $250. The consensus from 15 analysts polled by S&P Global sits at an average target of $230.77, with a majority rating the shares a buy. One caution flag: insider sales totalling over $123 million in the past 90 days suggest not everyone inside the company sees today’s valuation as a bargain. On the technical side, the $215 level is viewed as the next support, while the intraday high of $233.60 marks immediate resistance as June begins.

The influx of a high-profile, AI-specialist fund alongside the capex upgrade creates a new narrative for Nebius — one that blends a concrete expansion plan with a shareholder base that has deep conviction in the thesis. Whether other institutions follow Aschenbrenner’s lead or wait for further operational proof points will determine how much further the stock can run. For now, Nebius has laid out a blueprint that matches ambition with capital, and the market is taking notice.

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