Nel ASA's Electrolyser Breakthrough Meets a Wall of Dwindling Orders and Analyst Skepticism

Nel ASA shares took a sharp 9% hit on Tuesday, slumping to €0.28 and wiping out a chunk of the gains that had taken the stock to NOK3.22 (€0.31) just a day earlier. The pullback comes even as the Norwegian hydrogen company unveiled what may be its most significant technological leap in years — a new pressure-based alkaline electrolyser platform that promises to slash the capital costs of green hydrogen production by 40 to 60%.

The platform, which was officially declared market-ready in May 2026 after more than eight years of development and successful testing at the Herøya facility, targets turnkey system costs of under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt plant. That figure undercuts many current industrial projects where costs can run as high as $3,000 per kilowatt, and Nel has laid out a roadmap to scale annual production capacity to 4 gigawatts. The European Union’s Innovation Fund has thrown its weight behind the effort with a grant of up to €135 million.

Yet the market’s enthusiasm for the technical achievement is being tempered by a harsh operational reality. Nel’s order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year in the first quarter to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog slipped to 1.11 billion kroner. First-quarter revenue fell 5% to 148 million kroner, and the company’s EBITDA remained in the red at minus 100 million kroner. Headcount has been cut by 26% from its peak and personnel costs trimmed 21%, but those cost savings have not been enough to offset the weak new business flow.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

“We see huge potential in the new platform, but the current numbers tell a different story,” said one Oslo-based analyst who declined to be named. “The commercial pipeline needs to fill up before the technology promise can translate into earnings.”

The disconnect between Nel’s technological ambition and its financial performance is fully reflected in analyst ratings. Among 13 analysts tracked, not one recommends buying the stock. The average price target stands at 2.12 kroner, well below the recent trading level of around 3.22 kroner. The relative strength index has tumbled deep into oversold territory at 16.2, hinting that the selling pressure may be overdone in the near term, but the broader sentiment remains hostile.

Nel’s balance sheet offers a degree of insulation. The company closed the quarter with 1.44 billion kroner in cash, which management believes will fund operations through 2026. That gives the new platform some time to win over customers, but the clock is ticking. The next major catalyst arrives in July when second-quarter earnings are due — investors will be scanning for any sign that the new electrolyser is generating actual orders rather than just headlines.

In the meantime, the stock’s recent trajectory has been a study in contradiction. Over the past month, Nel shares have rallied 33.5%, and they remain 45% higher year-to-date. Tuesday’s drop suggests that profit-taking is setting in as the market weighs a promising product against a gutted order book and a wall of analyst scepticism. The next few months will determine whether the new platform can narrow that gap — or whether the rally was built on hope alone.

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