Nemetschek’s €2bn HCSS Acquisition Puts Spotlight on Valuation Gap as Shares Sink Further

The €2 billion elephant in the room is the HCSS takeover, and for shareholders in Nemetschek it is both the biggest promise and the nearest-term uncertainty. The German software group has signed a binding agreement to buy the US infrastructure specialist, a deal valued at more than 20 times HCSS's 2025 EBITDA. With HCSS generating $215 million in revenue last year and an operating margin of 40%, the strategic logic is clear — but the market has yet to reward the stock, which has been caught in a persistent downtrend.

On the chart, the picture is grim. Nemetschek shares closed Friday at €62.40, slipping below the 50-day moving average of €63.66 — a classic technical warning. The gap to the 200-day line stands at a yawning 25.68%. The stock has shed 30.94% since the start of the year and nearly half its value over the past twelve months. A 52-week low of €57.60, hit in April, is only 8.33% away, while the 52-week peak of €137.90 is now 55% out of reach. The 20-day moving average sits at €62.59, a hair above Friday’s close, meaning any further decline would push the equity into a bearish alignment across all three timeframes.

The selloff gathered pace last week. Nemetschek lost roughly 6% from Monday to Thursday, sliding from €64.80 to €60.80 — a drop that stood out because the TecDAX held firm. Only a Friday bounce of about 2% brought the stock back to €62.05, though the RSI has now climbed to 89, flashing an overbought signal after the snap recovery.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?

Yet the company’s fundamentals tell a different story. First?quarter revenue hit €313.1 million, up 17% on a currency?adjusted basis, with subscription and SaaS revenue surging 35.4%. Net profit jumped 34.5% to €60 million, EBITDA improved to €98.4 million (a margin of 31.4% versus 28.5% a year earlier), and earnings per share rose to €0.52 from €0.39. Management has reaffirmed its full?year outlook: currency?adjusted organic revenue growth of 14?15% and an EBITDA margin between 32% and 33%. The next catalyst on the calendar is the second?quarter report, due July 30.

The HCSS deal, which Nemetschek expects to close in the second half of 2026 pending regulatory approvals, will add $450 million in existing financial liabilities. But it also opens a much larger addressable market: the expanded Build & Construct segment is projected to be worth $12 billion by 2028. That long?term thesis is why 75% of analysts still rate the shares a buy, with an average price target of €93.38 — roughly 50% above the current level. Only 4% recommend selling.

The disconnect between operational strength and stock price has been a source of frustration for bulls, and the AI narrative adds another layer of pressure. Some investors worry that generative AI could render traditional software applications obsolete, but Nemetschek argues its data portfolio and industry expertise — combined with AI functionality — will prove more durable. For now, the market is waiting. The key variable in the coming weeks is whether regulators wave through the HCSS acquisition and whether the high?octane SaaS growth can be sustained into the second quarter.

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