Novo Nordisk's Oral Wegovy Blows Past Forecasts as China Push and Pipeline Trials Offer Fresh Momentum
20.06.2026 - 03:23:58 | boerse-global.de
The narrative around Novo Nordisk is shifting. A flurry of positive catalysts — from a faster-than-expected take-up of its oral Wegovy pill to a strategic push into China and encouraging late-stage pipeline data — has pulled the stock well clear of its March low, even if it remains nearly 40% below last year's peak.
Shares of the Danish pharmaceutical giant climbed more than 3.7% on Friday to €39.00, wrapping up a week that saw a 2.55% gain. The move followed an upgrade from Nordea, which switched its rating from Hold to Buy with a DKK 350 price target. The bank cited a "positively skewed" near-term news flow and the potential for Wegovy sales to overshoot current expectations. Berenberg also chimed in, raising its target to DKK 325 from DKK 300 while repeating a Buy recommendation after analyst Kerry Holford met with Novo Nordisk's US chief.
Not all analysts are convinced. Deutsche Bank remains at Hold, illustrating the market's ongoing split over the stock's trajectory.
Oral Wegovy scripts tell a powerful story
The immediate driver of the renewed optimism is the oral formulation of Wegovy — a 25 mg tablet that has accumulated more than 3 million prescriptions in the United States in just over five months. The first million came in twelve weeks; the next two million followed in only ten weeks. Analysts now estimate that the oral pill could generate around DKK 18 billion in revenue in 2026, sharply above the previous consensus of just DKK 11 billion.
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Novo Nordisk plans to roll out the pill outside the US in the second half of 2026, starting with the United Arab Emirates. The international expansion is accelerating: CEO Mike Doustdar, during his first visit to China, said the company would file for approval of the oral Wegovy pill in that market within months. That puts Novo Nordisk in a race against Eli Lilly, which submitted its application for the oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron at the end of 2025. Doustdar also warned that competition from generic drugmakers could begin as soon as the second quarter of next year.
CagriSema and Zenagamtide: two shots at the next wave
Beyond Wegovy, the pipeline is generating tangible catalysts. Phase 3 data for CagriSema — a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide — were published simultaneously in The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. The REIMAGINE 1-3 studies met their primary endpoints and confirmatory secondary weight-loss endpoints in adults with type 2 diabetes. The FDA is expected to rule on CagriSema's obesity indication in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a launch could follow in early 2027.
Early-stage results for Zenagamtide (Amycretin) also turned heads. In a Phase 2 trial, the highest 40 mg dose cut HbA1c by an average of 1.71 percentage points over 36 weeks, with nearly 89% of participants reaching the clinically relevant threshold of below 7%. Body weight fell by 14.6% over the same period. Phase 3 studies are slated to begin in the second half of 2026, with initial readouts unlikely before 2028.
Rare disease progress and a lingering security headache
Novo Nordisk also posted a win in rare disease. The pivotal HIBISCUS study of Etavopivat, a once-daily tablet for sickle cell disease, hit both co-primary endpoints in 385 patients aged 12 and older. The drug reduced the annual rate of vaso-occlusive crises by 27% versus placebo and improved hemoglobin response. The company plans to file for its first approval in the second half of 2026.
Still, not all news was positive. The company disclosed a data breach that compromised patient data from clinical trials. Details remain scarce — how many individuals were affected, when the attack occurred, and how the intruders gained access are all unclear.
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Recovery from the lows, but a long climb back
At €39.00, Novo Nordisk shares sit roughly 29% above the 52-week trough of €30.25 hit in March and have reclaimed ground above the 50-day moving average of €36.99. Yet the stock still trades some 40% below its all-time high of €65.20. That gap reflects a cocktail of headwinds: intensifying competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, a below-expectation 2026 revenue guidance, and the aforementioned data breach. A particularly aggressive pricing strategy in the US, where Novo Nordisk slashed prices for its obesity drugs, also weighed on first-quarter sales — though the company is banking on surging volumes to more than compensate.
The next big test comes on 5 August 2026, when Novo Nordisk reports first-half results. Between now and then, the FDA's decision on CagriSema in the autumn and the accelerating rollout of oral Wegovy should provide concrete checkpoints to determine whether the recent analyst upgrades carry substance or are simply tactical bets.
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