SAP Shares Hit 52-Week Low of €132.26 Despite 27% Cloud Growth; Analyst Targets Stretch from €205 to €276
20.06.2026 - 16:47:28 | boerse-global.de
The contradiction is stark. SAP’s cloud backlog jumped 20% in the first quarter, operating profit rose 24%, and total revenue hit €9.6 billion. Yet the software giant’s stock touched a fresh 52-week low of €132.26 on Friday, leaving the market down roughly 34% since the start of 2026 and 46% lower than a year ago. The company now trades at roughly half the all-time high of €266 set last summer.
Several high?profile analysts see the sell?off as overdone. Bernstein reiterated a buy rating on June 17 with a price target of €276 — implying more than 100% upside from Thursday’s close of €134.00. UBS on Friday maintained its buy call and €205 target, with analyst Michael Briest describing the operating business as “significantly more robust than the market mood.” Berenberg stuck to its €215 target, pointing to historically low valuation multiples. Bank of America also issued a buy recommendation on June 11, while JPMorgan held at “neutral” with no comparable upside figure — a divergence of nearly €100 between the most bullish and the most cautious targets for a DAX heavyweight.
The operational numbers explain the optimism. Cloud revenue alone grew 27% year?on?year in the first quarter, and the cloud backlog — a key forward?looking metric — swelled to €21.9 billion. Free cash flow was not disclosed, but the €2.9 billion operating result underscores the margin expansion. In addition, SAP secured a BSI certification allowing it to process classified data for German government agencies, opening a new public?sector channel.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The bear case, however, is not without ammunition. Sector?wide fears that autonomous AI agents could eventually render traditional enterprise software obsolete have weighed on sentiment. More immediately, Oracle’s announcement of capital expenditure plans between $90 billion and $95 billion for fiscal 2027 — well above consensus — spooked the market, sending SAP shares down 4.1% on the day and making it the worst performer in the DAX. Goldman Sachs cut its second?half 2026 gross margin forecast from 73.3% to 72.8%, citing higher hardware costs, while warning that a customer in the Middle East plans to scale back activities — a potential drag on cloud growth in the second quarter.
The interest?rate backdrop is also unfriendly. Goldman Sachs has removed any expectation of rate cuts in 2026, pushing the first potential easing to 2027. For high?multiple growth stocks, a higher discount rate compresses valuations significantly.
SAP is fighting back with its own tools. A share buyback programme running until the end of July is chewing through a multi?billion?euro tranche. The company also placed a €3.5 billion euro bond in four tranches at the end of May, proceeds from which will refinance acquisitions. Recent deals include the May close of Reltio, a master?data?management specialist, and the planned purchase of Dremio to bolster the SAP Business Data Cloud.
Technically, the stock remains under pressure. It now trades about 28% below the 200?day moving average, hovering near oversold territory. The next major test comes on July 23, when SAP reports second?quarter results. The market will scrutinise whether the cloud backlog and gross margins can maintain their trajectory, and whether encouraging pipeline signals from the Sapphire conference translate into actual order intake. For now, the gap between corporate performance and equity pricing has rarely been wider.
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