Silver’s Crosscurrents: A Narrowing Supply Gap Meets Hawkish Fed Headwinds

Silver traders are navigating a landscape of conflicting signals. The precious metal opened Friday with a 4.6% surge to $76.02 per ounce on news that the US and Iran had reached a provisional agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days — a deal still awaiting President Trump’s signature. But the rally faded, with futures settling at $75.83, a 0.5% loss from the intraday high. Despite the late pullback, silver remains roughly 6% higher on the month.

That bullish kicker masks a deeper tension. The Strait of Hormuz remains a geopolitical flashpoint, keeping energy prices elevated and feeding inflation expectations. Yet the very inflation that supports silver as a store of value also strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer — a direct headwind for an asset that offers no yield.

Fed Decision Looms Large

The June 16–17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is now the dominant catalyst on the calendar. It will be the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh and includes an updated dot plot, the first rate projection since March. Market pricing assigns a 98.2% probability of no change in rates. But the macro backdrop is shifting: US inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest since September 2023, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook has left the door open to further tightening if price pressures persist. John Williams has warned inflation could temporarily rise to 4%.

For silver, this creates a two-edged risk. Higher rates penalize zero-yield assets, but entrenched inflation bolsters demand for hard assets.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Supply Deficit Shrinks — But Remains

Structural bulls have long pointed to supply deficits, but the picture is evolving. UBS has sharply revised its global supply deficit estimate for 2026 to just 60–70 million ounces, down from 300 million ounces previously. The bank cites weaker investment demand, softer industrial consumption, and higher mine output. The World Silver Survey, meanwhile, projects a deficit of 46.3 million ounces this year — the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. That tally is dominated by solar demand, though manufacturers are becoming more efficient: photovoltaic-related silver consumption could drop roughly 19% by 2026. Total industrial demand slipped to 657 million ounces in 2025 after hitting a record 679 million ounces the year before.

Bank forecasts diverge widely. Citigroup sees silver hitting $110 in the second half of 2026, while Bank of America expects an average of $85.93 for the year. HSBC is more bearish, projecting $75 for 2026 and $68 for 2027.

Technicals and the Next Trigger

Silver is trading just under its 50-day moving average of $76.09 — a level that proved decisive on Friday. The relative strength index sits at 58.9, and oscillators show a negative divergence, pointing to consolidation. The annualized volatility of 57% underscores the choppy conditions.

The coming week offers macro clues that could tip the balance: the ISM manufacturing index on June 1, JOLTS data on June 2, the services PMI on June 3, and the May jobs report on June 5. These releases will influence bond yields and the dollar, feeding directly into silver’s next move.

Silber Preis at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The gold-to-silver ratio stands near 59, squarely in neutral territory — historically, readings above 80 signal undervaluation and below 40 overvaluation, offering no clear directional bias.

For now, silver remains caught between geopolitics, monetary policy, and a narrowing but persistent supply squeeze. The FOMC meeting and the trajectory of US-Iran talks will determine whether it reclaims its 50-day line or slides back into a waiting game.

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