Silver Stalls at $76 as Hormuz Diplomacy Rivals Jobs-Fueled Macro Risks

Silver ended the trading week stuck near the $76 mark, caught between a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Persian Gulf and a macro calendar packed with event risk. The white metal closed at $75.83, slipping 0.50% from the prior session, after oscillating in a tight band all Friday. Over the past 30 days it has still managed to add 5.95%, and year?to?date gains stand at 4.93%. Yet that leaves the price more than 35% below its 52?week high of $116.89 set back in late January.

The immediate driver of the standoff came from geopolitical headlines out of Washington. Reports indicated the US and Iran are working on a 60?day extension of the ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Vice?President JD Vance told Axios a deal was close, but the Associated Press noted that President Trump had not yet given final sign?off after a Situation Room meeting. Markets read the mixed signals as a reason to sit on their hands. A reopening of the strait would lower energy and transport costs, potentially easing inflation and shifting growth expectations — good for industrial demand but bad for the crisis premium that has supported silver’s safe?haven bid.

Beneath the geopolitical surface, the metal’s fundamental story remains one of chronic shortage. The World Silver Survey projects a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit, this time to the tune of 46.3 million ounces. The solar industry and other high?tech sectors continue to soak up material, even though the Bank of America has flagged a possible cooling in the solar market. WisdomTree noted in early May that roughly half of global silver demand now comes from industrial applications, making the metal unusually sensitive to both supply?chain upheaval and economic momentum.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

The coming week will test whether macro data can break the stalemate. Tuesday brings the ISM manufacturing index, followed by JOLTS job openings on Wednesday and the services PMI on Thursday. The main event lands on Friday with the May jobs report. Any surprises in hiring, wages, or unemployment will influence bond yields and the dollar — two variables that have been weighing on non?yielding assets like silver. Current high US yields and a firm greenback already cap upside, counterbalanced by a slight dollar pullback that offered some support last week.

Technically, the metal remains in a consolidation zone. The 50?day moving average sits at $76.01 and acted as resistance on Friday. The RSI came in at 58.9, a neutral reading that gives no clear signal, but a negative divergence in the oscillators hints that momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the 30?day volatility clocked in at 55.53%, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift. For the moment, silver is locked in a game of wait?and?see: the next meaningful move depends on whether Washington and Tehran put pen to paper on the Hormuz memorandum, or whether the jobs report provides the dollar and yields with fresh direction.

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