TSMC’s Booking Bonanza: Fully Subscribed to 2028 as Clients Eye Samsung and CoWoS Expansion Ramps
20.06.2026 - 16:28:21 | boerse-global.de
The chipmaker’s order book is so stuffed that some of the industry’s biggest names are being forced to look elsewhere. That sounds like a headache, but for TSMC it is quickly becoming the strongest endorsement of its market position. Every advanced node is spoken for years in advance, and the stock is sitting just shy of an all-time high.
Shares closed the week at €407 in Frankfurt, notching a weekly gain of just over 11%. The year-to-date advance stands at roughly 49%, with the record of €414 within striking distance. The 50-day moving average of €342 underscores the strength of the recent rally — momentum that was briefly interrupted when a Nikkei Asia report revealed that key clients are scouting alternatives.
BYD, AMD and Google are now in varying stages of talks with Samsung about future chip production. BYD needs processors for driver-assistance systems, AMD is evaluating Samsung for certain CPUs starting in 2028, and Google is exploring options for its Axion processors and TPU components. The reason is simple: TSMC’s capacity at 3nm and 2nm is completely locked up by Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Broadcom and others. A manager at a Chinese automotive chipmaker told Nikkei that TSMC prioritises advanced nodes because they are more profitable, leaving little room for newcomers. Samsung’s free capacity, even with lower yields, is suddenly more attractive.
The stock dipped about 3.5% on the news before recovering swiftly. Investors quickly concluded that turning customers away because demand exceeds supply is not a competitive weakness — it is pricing power in its purest form.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TSMC?
TSMC is not leaving those bottlenecks to chance. The company is integrating Nvidia’s AI systems directly into its own fabs to speed up simulations and boost yield. Management expects revenue to grow more than 30% for the full year 2026. On the hardware side, a new decade-long agreement with Amkor Technology secures advanced packaging capacity in Arizona, creating a fully localised US supply chain.
Packaging, in fact, has become the next battleground. The CoWoS technology essential for AI chips still faces a capacity gap of about 20%, though TSMC expects that to narrow to around 10% by the end of 2026. Monthly production could reach 120,000 to 140,000 wafers, with partners adding another 50,000 to 60,000, bringing the industry total to nearly 200,000 wafers per month. Yields on TSMC’s own 5.5-reticle CoWoS solution top 98%, compared with Intel’s EMIB-T at roughly 90% and Samsung’s 2nm process stuck in the mid-50% range.
The next step is CoPoS — Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate. A research line has been running at subsidiary VisEra since 2025, with material and equipment certifications expected by June 2026. Nvidia’s Feynman platform is the leading candidate for first mass production, likely no earlier than 2028.
All this comes with a hefty price tag. TSMC’s capital budget for 2026 stands at $52bn to $56bn, with 70–80% earmarked for advanced process nodes, about 10% for specialty nodes, and the rest for packaging, testing and mask production. Advanced packaging already made up roughly 8% of revenue in 2025 and is expected to cross the 10% threshold for the first time in 2026.
TSMC at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
One overhanging risk is a pending patent investigation by the US International Trade Commission. A first ruling is due this month, and a favourable outcome would remove the final near-term hurdle for the stock.
The larger picture is one of structural scarcity. AI infrastructure, high-performance computing and automotive electronics are pulling demand in the same direction, and that dynamic shows no signs of easing before the end of the decade. For TSMC, being sold out years ahead is not a luxury problem — it is the investment thesis in a nutshell.
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TSMC Stock: New Analysis - 20 June
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