TUI’s Twin Ships Escape the Gulf, Leaving a €40 Million Scar and a Slashed Outlook
08.05.2026 - 13:25:20 | boerse-global.de
The two TUI cruise liners that had been trapped in the Persian Gulf for months finally slipped through the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, exploiting a brief window of calm. The “Mein Schiff 4” and “Mein Schiff 5” are now steaming around the southern tip of Africa to reach the Mediterranean, a detour that has already cost the company dearly. The evacuation of roughly 5,000 passengers and the logistical scramble to reroute the vessels ate up around €40 million in March alone, forcing management to tear up its original profit forecast.
The adjusted operating profit for the 2026 financial year is now pegged at €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion at constant currencies, down from the earlier target of 7% to 10% growth over the prior year. The revenue guidance has been suspended entirely. Analysts at Bernstein note that the warning is purely demand-driven, with energy costs largely neutralised by high hedging ratios for the current year. The damage, they say, stems from a sudden chill in consumer appetite for eastern Mediterranean destinations such as Turkey and Egypt.
TUI Cruises has responded by axing the entire Orient season for winter 2026/2027. The displaced ships will be redeployed to European waters, the Canary Islands and the Nordland region. Even the newbuild “Mein Schiff Flow,” whose delivery is expected in June, will see its itinerary rewritten from October. That vessel is central to the company’s capacity expansion and has helped persuade S&P Global Ratings to lift its outlook for TUI Cruises to “positive,” with the agency pencilling in an operating profit of around €1 billion for the current year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
At the stock market, however, the mood remains glum. TUI shares are changing hands at €6.73, having shed nearly a quarter of their value since the start of the year. The relative strength index sits at 29, a level that technicians regard as oversold. The stock is trading roughly 16% below its 200-day moving average, and the gap to analyst price targets is wide. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank still recommend buying, albeit with reduced targets of €12.50 and €10.50 respectively. Barclays has trimmed its own target to €9.
The second quarter is expected to show a modest improvement, with adjusted EBIT coming in €5 million to €25 million above the prior-year figure — a range that already accounts for the March hit. The half-year report due on Wednesday will offer a fuller picture, with investors focused on summer booking volumes and whether higher ticket prices can offset rising fuel and labour costs. Also on the radar is the dividend policy, which from 2026 envisages a payout ratio of 10% to 20% of adjusted earnings.
Meanwhile, TUI is pressing ahead with a strategic shift away from its traditional package-holiday model. The hotel brand TUI Blue is expanding with new openings in Italy and Spain, part of a broader push into higher-margin proprietary businesses such as hotels, cruises and activities. Analysts view the pivot favourably, noting that the medium-term goal of reducing net debt while generating stronger cash flow remains intact — even if the immediate geopolitical headwinds have thrown the near-term numbers off course.
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