VanEck Chip ETF Reaches €95.40 Peak as AI Server Demand Surges, Yet Heavyweights Split

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF ended the week at a 52-week high of €95.40, extending its year-to-date gain to nearly 74% after a 5% weekly advance. But beneath the headline numbers, the performance of the fund’s top holdings told a more nuanced story. While Micron Technology climbed roughly 5% and Broadcom added nearly as much, Nvidia slipped more than 1%, AMD finished nearly flat, and Intel shed about 5% — a reminder that even a sector-wide tailwind does not lift every stock equally.

The catalyst for the latest leg up came from two directions. Dell Technologies posted first-quarter revenue of $43.8 billion, an 88% surge year-over-year, with its infrastructure solutions unit jumping 181% to $29.0 billion. AI-optimized server sales alone soared 757%, and management raised its fiscal 2027 AI server revenue forecast to $60 billion — a powerful signal for chipmakers across the supply chain, even though Dell itself is not a portfolio holding. Meanwhile, Nvidia delivered its own blockbuster results: first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier, and net income of $58.3 billion that beat analyst estimates by more than $15 billion. The company guided to $91 billion in current-quarter sales, and CEO Jensen Huang described the current buildout as “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” AMD had already set the stage earlier in May, reporting data-center revenue of $5.8 billion — a 57% gain — while free cash flow tripled to a record. CEO Lisa Su called it an inflection point and raised the company’s server CPU growth forecast from 18% to 35% annually, targeting a market worth more than $120 billion by 2030.

Beyond individual names, the broader semiconductor landscape has been on a tear. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has surged more than 65% year-to-date, powered by an 18-day winning streak that added almost 45%. A host of companies — Intel, Texas Instruments, NXP Semiconductors, and Silicon Motion Technology — all posted double-digit gains after their earnings. The fundamental support runs deep: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are budgeting up to $725 billion in capital expenditures this year, and Nvidia CFO Colette Kress predicts AI infrastructure spending could hit $3 to $4 trillion annually by the end of the decade.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?

Yet the rally has not been without its skeptics. Analysts such as BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky and investor Michael Burry have drawn comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 1999–2000. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading in May has effectively eliminated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring high-multiple growth stocks. Many semiconductor names now sit in technically overbought territory, widening the gap between sturdy fundamentals and frothy price action.

For investors in the VanEck product itself, the fund’s concentrated portfolio amplifies both the upside and the downside. The ETF tracks the MarketVector US Listed Semiconductor 10% Capped Screened Index, comprising just 25 US-listed stocks. No single holding can exceed a 10% weighting, a rule that limits exposure to the largest names — AMD holds the top slot at roughly 10%, followed by Broadcom, Micron, TSMC, and Nvidia each at 8–9%. The top ten positions account for nearly 78% of the fund’s $8.3 billion in assets. The expense ratio of 0.35% places it in the cheapest quintile of Morningstar’s peer group, where the average fee is 1.34%, and dividends are reinvested rather than paid out. The ETF’s distance from its 200-day moving average has stretched to almost 64%, underscoring just how far the recovery from last May’s low has carried.

Looking ahead, the next major test for the ETF will come in July, when AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC report quarterly results and investors will see whether Dell’s server orders are translating into real chip demand. Historically, May has been a strong month for the fund — over the past decade, it posted an average monthly return of 6.8% with a 90% win rate, a pattern that held true this year. But with valuations stretched and rate-cut hopes fading, the second half of the year may prove a more demanding environment for even the best-positioned chip portfolios.

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