Novo Nordisk Shares Navigate a Market of Contrasts

Novo Nordisk finds itself at a critical juncture, pulled between significant growth opportunities and mounting headwinds. The pharmaceutical giant's stock reflects this tension, caught between the promise of a major new market entry and the pressure from legal challenges and a deteriorating technical picture.

A substantial cloud of uncertainty stems from the United States, where a class-action lawsuit related to potential side effects of Novo Nordisk's core GLP‑1 products has introduced considerable legal risk. Reports concerning adverse health outcomes have unsettled both retail and institutional investors, leading to a noticeably more cautious stance toward the stock. In the pharmaceutical sector, such litigation often acts as a cap on share price recoveries, as the potential financial impact remains difficult to quantify. This legal overhang is currently preventing the market from fully pricing in positive developments elsewhere.

The Indian Launch: A Potential Growth Engine

On the positive side, the company has initiated a strategically vital expansion by launching its blockbuster drug Ozempic in India. This move opens access to one of the world's largest healthcare markets, characterized by a rapidly growing population of diabetes and obesity patients. Market observers view this not merely as a symbolic entry but as a potential substantial revenue source. Many see the Indian subcontinent as a central arena for the next phase of growth in the GLP‑1 segment, which could help offset slowing momentum in more mature Western markets. A successful rollout may provide the long-term volume needed to better support Novo Nordisk's elevated valuation.

Divergent Analyst Views and Share Price Performance

The institutional analyst community appears divided, contributing to market volatility. On December 16, 2025, Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its buy recommendation for Novo Nordisk, signaling that some professional observers still view the company's structural growth story—underpinned by its strong portfolio in metabolic therapies—as intact despite ongoing concerns.

However, more cautious voices are equally prominent. Critics frequently point to the stock's ambitious valuation and intensifying competition, notably from rival Eli Lilly. These conflicting assessments create an unclear picture for private investors. This fundamental discord is reflected in the market performance: the share price has declined by nearly 60% over a twelve-month period. It currently trades around €41, hovering just a few percentage points above its recent annual low.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Technical Picture Points to Continued Pressure

From a chart perspective, the situation has deteriorated. Recent price action suggests sellers currently hold the upper hand in the short term.

Key technical observations include:

• Critical €40 Level: The share price is trading perilously close to this psychologically significant threshold. A clear and sustained break below it could trigger further automated sell orders and deepen the ongoing correction.
• Failed Recovery Attempt: Efforts this week to establish a price floor were undone. The attempt to reclaim higher resistance levels has failed for now, putting any immediate bullish reversal scenario on hold.
• Weak Momentum: The short-term trend is downward, a view reinforced by recent declines during U.S. trading sessions.

The stock is trading below its 50‑, 100‑, and 200‑day moving averages, underscoring the prevailing downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 35 indicates a market that has cooled significantly but is not yet in extreme oversold territory.

Upcoming Earnings as the Next Catalyst

Attention now turns to the impending quarterly earnings season. Analysts expect earnings per share of approximately $0.90. More important than merely meeting this estimate will be management's commentary on:

• Concrete progress updates regarding the Ozempic launch in India.
• Guidance on the potential financial impact of the U.S. class-action lawsuit on costs and results.
• Confirmation of whether the company maintains its medium-term growth targets.

Conclusion: Novo Nordisk is balanced between a promising global expansion path and palpable legal and technical headwinds. Whether the stock can regain its footing will likely depend on management's ability to provide investors with credible answers in the next earnings report regarding the Indian rollout and the strategy for handling U.S. legal risks.