TSMC's Capacity Crunch Forces Clients to Rivals as It Fortifies US Supply Chain with Amkor Deal
20.06.2026 - 17:32:44 | boerse-global.de
The world's largest chip foundry is navigating a paradox that defines its current market position: demand so intense that it must turn customers away, yet it is simultaneously making bold moves to lock down long-term supply resilience. TSMC's share price has surged nearly 125% over the past year, closing the week at €407, just shy of its all-time high of €414. The rally reflects both the AI boom and investor confidence in the company's ability to manage its own success — a confidence that was tested briefly last week when a Nikkei Asia report sent the stock down around 3.5% before a rapid recovery.
The report revealed that BYD, AMD, and Google are exploring the possibility of manufacturing future chips at Samsung. BYD is eyeing processors for driver-assistance systems, AMD is considering Samsung for certain CPUs from 2028 onward, and Google is evaluating options for its Axion processors and TPU components. The reason is straightforward: TSMC's leading-edge capacity is fully booked by Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, and others, leaving little room for new large-scale clients. As one Chinese automotive chip manager told Nikkei, TSMC prioritizes advanced manufacturing because it is more profitable and remains scarce. Samsung's available capacity, despite lower yields, is becoming increasingly attractive.
But TSMC is not sitting still. The company recently signed a landmark ten-year agreement with Amkor Technology to create a seamless chip supply chain on US soil. Under the deal, TSMC will supply bare silicon wafers from its Arizona fabrication plant, and Amkor will handle the highly complex packaging and final testing — tasks that previously required shipping chips back to Asia. The arrangement is a game-changer for regulated buyers such as the US military, who now gain a domestic source for the entire chip production cycle.
The CoWoS Bottleneck and Next-Generation Solutions
The packaging bottleneck is a central theme in both silicon and stock narratives. TSMC's chairman, C.C. Wei, has repeatedly warned of structural capacity constraints across the entire supply chain — power, chips, and equipment. The Amkor partnership is a direct response to this shift, but the company is also aggressively expanding its own advanced packaging capacity.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TSMC?
Currently, supply and demand for TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) technology, essential for AI accelerators, are misaligned by about 20%. That gap is expected to narrow to roughly 10% by the end of 2026. TSMC's own monthly CoWoS capacity is projected to climb to between 120,000 and 140,000 wafers by then, with partner suppliers contributing an additional 50,000 to 60,000 wafers, bringing industry-wide capacity close to 200,000 wafers per month.
Simultaneously, TSMC is pushing ahead with its next-generation packaging technology, CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate). A research line has been running since 2025 at subsidiary VisEra, with material and equipment certifications expected by June 2026. Nvidia's Feynman platform is the prime candidate for early adoption, though mass production is not expected until 2028 at the earliest.
When it comes to quality, TSMC sets a high bar. Its own CoWoS solution in the 5.5-reticle size achieves yields above 98%. By comparison, Intel's EMIB-T technology hovers around 90%, and Samsung's 2nm process sits in the mid-50% range. That performance gap helps explain why clients are reluctant to leave TSMC even as they explore alternatives.
Investment Thesis: Scarcity as a Catalyst
The market has grasped that turning customers away is not a sign of weakness. The 50-day moving average of the stock stands at €342, roughly 19% below the current price — a technical indicator pointing to strong upward momentum. Analysts are unanimous in their bullishness: all 17 experts covering the stock rate it a buy, with a consensus price target of $473.40.
TSMC at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
TSMC's capital expenditure budget for 2026 is set at $52 billion to $56 billion. Of that, 70% to 80% will go into advanced process nodes, about 10% into specialty nodes, and the remainder into packaging, testing, and mask production. Advanced packaging accounted for approximately 8% of revenue in 2025; that share is expected to cross the 10% threshold for the first time in 2026.
The long-term thesis rests on structural scarcity. AI infrastructure, high-performance computing, and automotive electronics are all pulling on capacity simultaneously. TSMC's response — locking in US packaging capacity via Amkor, expanding CoWoS, and investing in CoPoS — signals that management expects the demand surge to persist well into the next decade. For investors, the Samsung defection headlines are not a warning but a confirmation that TSMC's order book is so full that even its own clients have to look elsewhere.
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